青藏高原东南部安宁河-则木河-大梁山断裂系统地震再现特征及地震发生概率

IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Qi Zhang, Yingwei Du, Yajing Gao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

安宁河-则木河-大梁山断裂系是中国地震重灾区之一,分析该地区地震活动性特征和地震发生概率具有重要的现实意义。现有的历史地震和仪器地震目录都很短且不完整,这给根据这些目录准确估计地震的重现行为和地震发生概率带来了挑战。模拟的长期地震目录可以在很大程度上弥补现有观测目录的不足。本文建立了安宁河-则木河-大梁山断裂系统的有限元动力学模型,模拟了区域断裂的地震旋回,生成了满足区域地球动力学背景的长期模拟地震目录。在模拟地震目录的基础上,分析了安宁河-则木河-大梁山断裂系统不同位置不同震级地震的重现特征,地震的时间分布,以及各断裂未来不同时间间隔强震发生的概率。研究发现,安宁河-则木河-大梁山断裂系同一位置强震沿断层的重现行为往往具有准周期性。我们观察到,威布尔模型可以很好地描述这些强震在每个断层的重复次数。模型结果表明,在整个断裂系统中,安宁河断裂发生下一次强震的概率最高。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Earthquake recurrence characteristics and earthquake occurrence probabilities in the Anninghe-Zemuhe-Daliangshan fault system, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

The Anninghe-Zemuhe-Daliangshan fault system is one of the most severe seismic hazard regions in China, and it is of great practical significance to analyze the characteristics of seismicity and probability of earthquake occurrence in this region. The available earthquake catalogs from both the historical and instrumental are short and incomplete, making it challenging to accurately estimate the earthquake recurrence behavior and earthquake occurrence probabilities based on these catalogs. A simulated long-term earthquake catalog can largely make up for the shortcomings of the available observational catalogs. In this paper, we established a finite element dynamics model of the Anninghe-Zemuhe-Daliangshan fault system to simulate the earthquake cycles of the regional faults and generate a long-term simulated earthquake catalog that satisfies the regional geodynamic background. Based on the simulated earthquake catalog, we analyzed the characteristics of earthquake recurrence of different magnitudes at different locations along faults in the Anninghe-Zemuhe-Daliangshan fault system, the temporal distribution of these earthquakes, and the occurrence probabilities of strong earthquakes at various future time intervals on each fault. We found that the recurrence behavior of strong earthquakes at the same location along faults in the Anninghe-Zemuhe-Daliangshan fault system often has quasi-periodicity. We observed that the Weibull model can well describe the recurrence times of these strong earthquakes of each fault. Model results showed that the probability of a next strong earthquake to be occurred on the Anninghe fault is the highest in the entire fault system.

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来源期刊
Acta Geophysica
Acta Geophysica GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS-
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
13.00%
发文量
251
期刊介绍: Acta Geophysica is open to all kinds of manuscripts including research and review articles, short communications, comments to published papers, letters to the Editor as well as book reviews. Some of the issues are fully devoted to particular topics; we do encourage proposals for such topical issues. We accept submissions from scientists world-wide, offering high scientific and editorial standard and comprehensive treatment of the discussed topics.
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