出口增长对农民工区位选择的影响：来自中国的证据

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-04-19 DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102409

Guohua Peng , Xiaoling Zhao

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文考察了一个中等收入国家的区域间移民对出口冲击的反应。实证结果表明，中国出口增长对区域间人口迁移具有显著影响。利用2005年中国人口普查数据，我们估计了出口增长对各地级市农民工区位选择的影响。结果表明，一个县每增加1000美元的人均出口增长，农民工选择该县的概率显著增加0.77个百分点。出口增长对不同学历和户口类型农民工的影响具有异质性。研究表明，这种效应是由平均工资率的提高和农民工就业机会的改善所驱动的。我们的估计揭示了与迁移概率相关的县属性的重要权衡。

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Effects of export growth on the location choices of migrant workers: Evidence from China

This paper examines the interregional migration responses to the export shocks in a middle-income country. We present the evidence that the export growth in China has significant impacts on interregional migration. Using 2005 Chinese Population Census data, we estimate the impacts of export growth on the location choices of the migrant workers across prefectures. The results imply that for a 1000 USD increase in export growth per worker in a prefecture, the probability of migrant workers choosing the prefecture increases significantly by 0.77 percentage points. The effects of export growth have heterogeneity on different education and hukou type groups of migrant workers. We show that the effects are driven by the increases in the mean wage rates and the improvements of job opportunities for migrant workers. Our estimates reveal important trade-offs for prefecture attributes related to the probability of migration.

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来源期刊

中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

10.60

自引率

4.40%

发文量

380

期刊介绍： The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.