中国的国土空间规划政策能否提高土地利用的可持续性?全球环境变化下的综合评价

IF 12.4 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Jinhui Xiong , Wenze Yue , Haoxuan Xia , Tianyu Wang , Yong Liu , Bryan C. Pijanowski
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引用次数: 0

摘要

土地利用可持续性对应对全球变化和实现可持续发展具有深远的影响。虽然已经实施了许多政策来改善LUS,但其有效性仍不清楚。本研究结合共享社会经济路径(ssp)、代表性集中化路径(rcp),以及以土地利用政策为导向的“一切照老”(BAU)、“生物多样性与农业适应”(BAA)和“中国国土空间规划”(TSP)三种情景,构建了2035年中国土地利用动态的综合评估模型。利用全球变化分析模型和未来土地利用模拟模型,量化了生态可持续性(ES)、生产可持续性(PS)和生活可持续性(LS)之间的变化及其相互作用。在BAU下,ES的下降占主导地位——在SSP126和SSP245下只有5个省有所改善,在SSP460下有3个省有所改善——而ES- ps和PS-LS之间出现了显著的权衡,ES- ls之间存在适度的协同效应。相比之下,BAA优于增强平均LUS,而TSP产生最优结果。其中,在SSP126-TSP下,ES和LS最高的省份有22个,PS最高的省份有24个。同时,在SSP126-TSP下,ES-LS协同效应的Pearson相关系数达到0.46。总体而言,TSP显著减少了权衡,促进了各方面的协同效应。这些发现突出了TSP在可持续土地利用中的关键作用,并为政策制定提供了可行的见解,以实现中国和全球的可持续发展目标。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Will China’s territorial spatial planning policies enhance land use sustainability? An integrated assessment under global environmental change

Will China’s territorial spatial planning policies enhance land use sustainability? An integrated assessment under global environmental change
Land use sustainability (LUS) has exhibited profound impacts on addressing global change and achieving sustainable development. Although numerous policies have been implemented to improve LUS, their effectiveness remains unclear. This study builds an integrated assessment to model LUS dynamics in China for 2035 under nine scenarios, combining Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and three land use policy-oriented scenarios: Business As Usual (BAU), Biodiversity and Agricultural Adaptation (BAA), and Chinese Territorial Spatial Planning (TSP). Using the global change analysis model and future land use simulation model, we quantify changes and interactions among Ecological Sustainability (ES), Production Sustainability (PS), and Living Sustainability (LS). Under BAU, ES declines are predominant – with improvements observed in only 5 provinces under SSP126 and SSP245, and 3 provinces under SSP460 – while significant trade-offs emerge between ES-PS and PS-LS, with modest ES-LS synergy. In contrast, BAA outperforms enhancing average LUS, while TSP yields the most optimal outcomes. Specifically, under SSP126-TSP, up to 22 provinces show highest ES and LS, and PS peaks in 24 provinces. Meanwhile, Pearson correlation coefficient between ES-LS synergy reaches 0.46 under SSP126-TSP. Overall, TSP markedly reduces trade-offs and fosters synergies across all dimensions. These findings highlight TSP’s critical role in sustainable land use and provide actionable insights for policymaking to achieve sustainable development goals in China and globally.
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来源期刊
Resources Environment and Sustainability
Resources Environment and Sustainability Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
15.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
41
审稿时长
33 days
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