Mapping immunogenic epitopes of F13L protein in Mpox Clade Ib: HLA-B*08 and HLA-DRB1*01 as predictors of antigen presentation, disease incidence, and lethality

Mpox, an infectious disease caused by the MPXV virus, can lead to painful skin rashes, lymphadenopathy, and fever. While most individuals recover fully, some develop severe illness. The Clade Ib Mpox outbreak is primarily driven by human-to-human transmission, underscoring the urgent need for a coordinated response at national, regional, and international levels. The prediction of epitopes based on human leukocyte antigen (HLA) antigen presentation and their association with disease outcomes forms a crucial basis for developing targeted therapies. This study conducted a bioinformatic prediction of T-cell epitopes and their HLA class I and II-restricted alleles to identify immunogenic epitopes and HLA alleles of the Clade Ib F13L protein of Mpox, an essential protein for viral maturation and the formation of enveloped virions. Moreover, we explored correlations between these epitopes and incidence and lethality rates in hospitalized patients, using data from various regions as an example. We identified a set of 10 epitopes with immunogenic potential and several HLA alleles predicted to efficiently present these epitopes to T cells. Notably, a statistically significant negative correlation was observed between the frequency of HLA-B*08 and HLA-DRB1*01 alleles and incidence and lethality rates in hospitalized patients in Mexico, illustrating potential broader implications.