Convergence in energy self-sufficiency: the role of renewable energy, fossil fuel rents, energy efficiency and gross domestic product per capita

Increasing energy self-sufficiency and energy security are essential for countries to promote sustainable development. Analyzing convergence in energy self-sufficiency is crucial for designing policies to address energy security challenges. This paper examines convergence in energy self-sufficiency (measured by the ratio of total primary energy production to total primary energy consumption) across 159 countries from 1993 to 2022. The club convergence algorithm is used to assess whether all countries converge in energy self-sufficiency. The findings indicate that there is no overall convergence across all countries, but distinct convergence clubs exist. Additionally, the analysis reveals varying numbers of convergence clubs in energy self-sufficiency across different geographical regions. Furthermore, conditional beta convergence analyses are conducted using system generalized methods of moments (GMM) to identify the key determinants of energy self-sufficiency. A Probit model is also employed to examine the factors that increase the likelihood of belonging to a high-energy self-sufficiency club. The results suggest that countries with higher fossil fuel rents, greater renewable energy production, and improved energy efficiency tend to increase their energy self-sufficiency and belong to the final convergence club with higher energy self-sufficiency.