微型电网和农村电气化的私人投资：来自卢旺达新兴市场的见解

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2025.101948

Timothy O. Aluko , Nonjabulo C. Ngcobo , Adeyemi Adebayo

{"title":"微型电网和农村电气化的私人投资：来自卢旺达新兴市场的见解","authors":"Timothy O. Aluko , Nonjabulo C. Ngcobo , Adeyemi Adebayo","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.101948","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the current electrification rate of 37.4 %, Rwanda still faces a long road ahead to provide energy access to all by 2030. The annual estimated investment is about USD 70 billion to reach the target of 100 % electrification by 2030 and achieve sustainable energy. Considering the constant constraints on the government's budget, the need for private investments to meet this target is evident in addressing the perceived high investment risks in rural electrification in Rwanda. This paper examines whether diversification through geographical distance and energy source/technology in a portfolio of mini-grids for power can reduce investment risks and increase capital availability and volumes. Quantitative estimation of the cost of financing and derisking effects of the private investment strategies for a hypothetical portfolio in Rwanda was applied as a method of analysis. Findings show that, theoretically, private investment in the energy mix can help lower the cost of capital. A rise in the amount of capital available for Rwanda's rural electrification could result from a fall in the cost of capital, which has a statistically significant link with capital. We highlight the implications of this study for policy and practice and conclude by identifying limitations and providing avenues for further research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 101948"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Mini-grids and private investment in rural electrification: Insights from Rwanda's emerging market\",\"authors\":\"Timothy O. Aluko , Nonjabulo C. Ngcobo , Adeyemi Adebayo\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jup.2025.101948\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Given the current electrification rate of 37.4 %, Rwanda still faces a long road ahead to provide energy access to all by 2030. The annual estimated investment is about USD 70 billion to reach the target of 100 % electrification by 2030 and achieve sustainable energy. Considering the constant constraints on the government's budget, the need for private investments to meet this target is evident in addressing the perceived high investment risks in rural electrification in Rwanda. This paper examines whether diversification through geographical distance and energy source/technology in a portfolio of mini-grids for power can reduce investment risks and increase capital availability and volumes. Quantitative estimation of the cost of financing and derisking effects of the private investment strategies for a hypothetical portfolio in Rwanda was applied as a method of analysis. Findings show that, theoretically, private investment in the energy mix can help lower the cost of capital. A rise in the amount of capital available for Rwanda's rural electrification could result from a fall in the cost of capital, which has a statistically significant link with capital. We highlight the implications of this study for policy and practice and conclude by identifying limitations and providing avenues for further research.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":23554,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Utilities Policy\",\"volume\":\"95 \",\"pages\":\"Article 101948\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-04-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Utilities Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178725000633\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Utilities Policy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178725000633","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

鉴于卢旺达目前的电气化率为 37.4%，要在 2030 年之前实现人人享有能源的目标，仍然任重而道远。要实现到 2030 年 100%电气化的目标并实现可持续能源，每年的投资额估计约为 700 亿美元。考虑到政府预算的持续限制，为实现这一目标，显然需要私人投资来解决卢旺达农村电气化的高投资风险问题。本文探讨了通过地理距离和能源/技术实现电力微型电网组合的多样化能否降低投资风险，并提高资本的可用性和数量。作为一种分析方法，本文对卢旺达假定组合的融资成本和私人投资战略的风险降低效果进行了定量估算。研究结果表明，从理论上讲，对能源组合的私人投资有助于降低资本成本。卢旺达农村电气化可用资本额的增加可能源于资本成本的下降，而资本成本与资本在统计上有显著联系。我们强调了本研究对政策和实践的影响，最后指出了局限性并提供了进一步研究的途径。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Mini-grids and private investment in rural electrification: Insights from Rwanda's emerging market

Given the current electrification rate of 37.4 %, Rwanda still faces a long road ahead to provide energy access to all by 2030. The annual estimated investment is about USD 70 billion to reach the target of 100 % electrification by 2030 and achieve sustainable energy. Considering the constant constraints on the government's budget, the need for private investments to meet this target is evident in addressing the perceived high investment risks in rural electrification in Rwanda. This paper examines whether diversification through geographical distance and energy source/technology in a portfolio of mini-grids for power can reduce investment risks and increase capital availability and volumes. Quantitative estimation of the cost of financing and derisking effects of the private investment strategies for a hypothetical portfolio in Rwanda was applied as a method of analysis. Findings show that, theoretically, private investment in the energy mix can help lower the cost of capital. A rise in the amount of capital available for Rwanda's rural electrification could result from a fall in the cost of capital, which has a statistically significant link with capital. We highlight the implications of this study for policy and practice and conclude by identifying limitations and providing avenues for further research.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.