{"title":"一个具有指数依赖增长率的旅游区生命周期模型,用于模拟后停滞阶段","authors":"M. Rodrigo , I. Ajala , A.K. Irhanida","doi":"10.1016/j.annale.2025.100177","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The resilience of the tourism industry is increasingly reliant on robust health infrastructure and effective disease detection systems, particularly in the face of ongoing global health challenges. This study introduces a modified tourism area life cycle model to explore the interplay between health preparedness and tourism dynamics. By linking growth rates to quantifiable indicators from the WHO International Health Regulations core capacity index, which evaluates adherence to global health standards, the model effectively illustrates tourist population behaviours alongside health capacity. It highlights trends of decline or rejuvenation during the poststagnation phase and provides predictive insights relevant to five representative countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34520,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights","volume":"6 1","pages":"Article 100177"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A tourism area life cycle model with an index-dependent growth rate for modelling the poststagnation stage\",\"authors\":\"M. Rodrigo , I. Ajala , A.K. Irhanida\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.annale.2025.100177\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>The resilience of the tourism industry is increasingly reliant on robust health infrastructure and effective disease detection systems, particularly in the face of ongoing global health challenges. This study introduces a modified tourism area life cycle model to explore the interplay between health preparedness and tourism dynamics. By linking growth rates to quantifiable indicators from the WHO International Health Regulations core capacity index, which evaluates adherence to global health standards, the model effectively illustrates tourist population behaviours alongside health capacity. It highlights trends of decline or rejuvenation during the poststagnation phase and provides predictive insights relevant to five representative countries.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":34520,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights\",\"volume\":\"6 1\",\"pages\":\"Article 100177\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-04-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666957925000126\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666957925000126","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM","Score":null,"Total":0}
A tourism area life cycle model with an index-dependent growth rate for modelling the poststagnation stage
The resilience of the tourism industry is increasingly reliant on robust health infrastructure and effective disease detection systems, particularly in the face of ongoing global health challenges. This study introduces a modified tourism area life cycle model to explore the interplay between health preparedness and tourism dynamics. By linking growth rates to quantifiable indicators from the WHO International Health Regulations core capacity index, which evaluates adherence to global health standards, the model effectively illustrates tourist population behaviours alongside health capacity. It highlights trends of decline or rejuvenation during the poststagnation phase and provides predictive insights relevant to five representative countries.