Past and future climate change in the Zagros region of western Iran

The decline of Zagros forests of western Iran is assumed to be a consequence of climate change. The impact of climate change extends beyond the environment and has affected living standards, the economy, society, and the cultural development of people in the Zagros region. This study aimed to analyze trends in the meteorological data obtained from observations at 16 synoptic weather stations in the Zagros region between1988 and 2022 and assessed future climate change under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) scenarios. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator were applied to detect significant trends in meteorological datasets. Projected meteorological variables of the NorESM2-LM model under SSP1, SSP3, and SSP5 scenarios were downscaled from 2030 to 2060 for each station using a quantile mapping approach. From 1988–2022, annual air temperature (75 % of stations) and wind speed (56 % of stations) significantly increased (α=0.05), but there were no significant trends in precipitation for any of the stations. Since 1988, an increase was observed in both temperature (0.04 °C y⁻¹) and wind speed (0.02 m s⁻¹ y⁻¹). Compared to the historical period, the mean annual temperature is expected to increase under SSP1, SSP3, and SSP5 scenarios by 0.2°C, 0.4°C, and 1.2°C, respectively, between 2030 and 2060. However, our projections under all scenarios suggest a negligible increase in average annual precipitation in the Zagros region. The results of this research suggest that the Zagros region will be vulnerable to drought under all scenarios, leading to substantial impacts on water resources, Zagros forests, agriculture, and related socio-economic activities.