对战争的恐惧：地缘政治风险及其对中国地方政府债券、股市和FDI的潜在影响

IF 2.1 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112329

Daoping Wang, Kangle Li , Xinyan Shen

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨了与台湾海峡有关的地缘政治风险对中国大陆地方政府债券、股市和外国直接投资的影响。利用 10,983 只债券的数据，我们发现地缘政治风险的增加与信用利差的提高相关。外国直接投资较高、外贸依存度较高、短期债券和二级市场交易量较大的省份受到的影响更大。一项案例研究表明，地缘政治风险会对利差产生直接和持续的影响，在一个月内达到顶峰，之后逐渐下降。此外，地缘政治风险的加剧会对省级外国直接投资流入和国有企业的股票收益产生负面影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Fear of war: Geopolitical risks and the potential impact on local government bonds, stock market and FDI in China

This study investigates the impact of Taiwan Strait-related geopolitical risk on local government bonds, stock market and FDI in the Chinese mainland. Using data from 10,983 bonds, we find that increased geopolitical risks are associated with higher credit spreads. Provinces with higher FDI and greater foreign trade dependence, short-term bonds, and secondary market trading are more strongly affected. A case study demonstrates that geopolitical risk has an immediate and persistent impact on spreads, peaking within one month and gradually declining afterward. Moreover, heightened geopolitical risk negatively affects provincial FDI inflows and the stock returns of state-owned enterprises.

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来源期刊

Economics Letters ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.00%

发文量

348

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.