基于异构网络的电热一体化系统负荷预测方法

IF 3.3 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC
Bohan Li, Xueping Li, Yao Cai, Qi Han
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在电热集成系统中,准确的负荷预测是优化能源利用和保证系统稳定运行的关键。然而,现有的模型很难捕捉到电力和热力网络之间复杂的相互依赖关系,导致预测不理想,特别是在耦合节点上。本文在异构网络(HetNet)框架下提出了一种异构图注意网络门控循环单元(HAN-GRU)模型,以提高预测精度。通过利用节点级和语义级的注意机制,HAN-GRU有效地集成了异构空间依赖和时间相关性,优先考虑关键耦合节点并优化信息聚合。提出的模型在Bali综合能源系统以及与IEEE 33总线和IEEE 118总线配电网络耦合的23节点径向供热网络上进行了验证。仿真结果表明,HAN-GRU在精度和效率方面都明显优于基线模型,突出了其作为可扩展和可解释的多能系统预测解决方案的潜力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A load forecasting method based on heterogeneous network for integrated electricity and heat systems
Accurate load forecasting in Integrated Electricity and Heat Systems (IEHS) is crucial for optimizing energy utilization and ensuring system stability. However, existing models struggle to capture the complex interdependencies between electricity and heat networks, leading to suboptimal predictions, particularly at coupling nodes. This study proposes a Heterogeneous Graph Attention Network-Gated Recurrent Unit (HAN-GRU) model within a Heterogeneous Network (HetNet) framework to enhance forecasting accuracy. By leveraging node-level and semantic-level attention mechanisms, HAN-GRU effectively integrates heterogeneous spatial dependencies and temporal correlations, prioritizing critical coupling nodes and optimizing information aggregation. The proposed model is validated on the Bali integrated energy system, as well as a 23-node radial heating network coupled with IEEE 33-bus and IEEE 118-bus power distribution networks. Simulation results demonstrate that HAN-GRU significantly outperforms baseline models in both accuracy and efficiency, highlighting its potential as a scalable and interpretable solution for multi-energy system forecasting.
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来源期刊
Electric Power Systems Research
Electric Power Systems Research 工程技术-工程:电子与电气
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
17.90%
发文量
963
审稿时长
3.8 months
期刊介绍: Electric Power Systems Research is an international medium for the publication of original papers concerned with the generation, transmission, distribution and utilization of electrical energy. The journal aims at presenting important results of work in this field, whether in the form of applied research, development of new procedures or components, orginal application of existing knowledge or new designapproaches. The scope of Electric Power Systems Research is broad, encompassing all aspects of electric power systems. The following list of topics is not intended to be exhaustive, but rather to indicate topics that fall within the journal purview. • Generation techniques ranging from advances in conventional electromechanical methods, through nuclear power generation, to renewable energy generation. • Transmission, spanning the broad area from UHV (ac and dc) to network operation and protection, line routing and design. • Substation work: equipment design, protection and control systems. • Distribution techniques, equipment development, and smart grids. • The utilization area from energy efficiency to distributed load levelling techniques. • Systems studies including control techniques, planning, optimization methods, stability, security assessment and insulation coordination.
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