Transitioning Australia’s land freight transport: Competition of fuel cell electric, battery electric, and internal combustion engine vehicles

Given the urgent need to decarbonise the transport sector, a comprehensive analysis of alternative fuel technologies is essential. This study introduces an innovative freight transport model, incorporating a novel approach to calculating vehicle time costs, refuelling time, and energy intensity, applied to Australia’s freight sector. Findings indicate that under moderate development, battery electric vehicles gain a larger share in light commercial vehicles, while fuel cell electric vehicles dominate the truck segment. In high development scenarios, battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles achieve closer parity across all vehicle types. The transition impacts refuelling infrastructure, with significant shifts in petrol and diesel station numbers, posing potential investment risks for diesel stations due to fluctuating demand across scenarios. High development scenarios highlight a substantial need for investment, driven by a surge in hydrogen station requirements and battery electric vehicle charger demand peaking at approximately 120,000 units in the internal combustion engine-ban scenario. Emission trends vary by scenario. Under reference and moderate development scenarios, total tank-to-wheel and well-to-wheel emissions increase over time. However, the internal combustion engine-ban and comprehensive scenarios lead to substantial emission reductions, underscoring the environmental significance of policy choices and technological advancements.