欧盟的“绿色”钢铁投资:天上掉馅饼?

IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Per-Olov Johansson , Bengt Kriström
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引用次数: 0

摘要

钢铁行业约占全球二氧化碳排放量的7%-8%。为了解决这个问题,一些倡议旨在通过用来自非化石电力的氢取代煤炭来建立碳中性钢铁生产。然而,这些项目依赖于大量的国家补贴,这引发了对其经济可行性的质疑,尤其是在全面的碳政策下,比如欧盟的“55年计划”(Fit-for-55)所概述的那些政策。我们的分析采用了基于一般均衡理论的成本效益框架,该框架明确考虑了政策对一级和二级市场的直接和间接影响,以及更广泛的经济相互依赖关系。通过将欧盟排放交易体系(ETS)和碳边界调整机制(CBAMs)整合到该框架中,我们对氢基钢生产的社会可取性进行了严格的评估。我们的研究结果基于对瑞典北部一家大型工厂的案例研究,表明了重大的社会损失,对整个欧盟的类似项目具有潜在的深远影响。我们可能会看到上世纪70年代欧洲钢铁危机的重演。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
“Green” steel investments in the EU: Pie in the sky?
The steel industry accounts for approximately 7%–8% of global carbon dioxide emissions. To address this, several initiatives aim to establish carbon-neutral steel production by replacing coal with hydrogen derived from fossil-free electricity. These projects, however, depend on substantial state subsidies, raising questions about their economic viability, especially under comprehensive carbon policies, such as those outlined in the EU’s Fit-for-55 package. Our analysis employs a cost–benefit framework grounded in general equilibrium theory, which explicitly considers the direct and indirect effects of policies on primary and secondary markets, as well as broader economic interdependencies. By integrating the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) into this framework, we provide a rigorous evaluation of the social desirability of hydrogen-based steel production. Our findings, based on a case study of a large-scale plant in northern Sweden, indicate significant social losses, with potentially far-reaching implications for similar projects across the EU. We might see a da capo of the 1970s European steel crisis.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Resource and Energy Economics provides a forum for high level economic analysis of utilization and development of the earth natural resources. The subject matter encompasses questions of optimal production and consumption affecting energy, minerals, land, air and water, and includes analysis of firm and industry behavior, environmental issues and public policies. Implications for both developed and developing countries are of concern. The journal publishes high quality papers for an international audience. Innovative energy, resource and environmental analyses, including theoretical models and empirical studies are appropriate for publication in Resource and Energy Economics.
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