{"title":"巴基斯坦吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦数据稀缺地区积雪变率评价及其与水文气候特征的相互作用","authors":"Zeeshan Zafar , Adeel Ahmad Nadeem , Yuanyuan Zha , Hammad Gilani , Aqil Tariq","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125375","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The upper Indus basin (UIB) provides a large portion of Pakistan's irrigation water supply. Snow and glacier melting contributes significantly to the annual flow of the UIB. A spatio-temporal assessment of snow cover dynamics and the hydrological response in the context of climate change is vital for better water resource management. This study utilized daily snow cover product (MOD10A1) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to evaluate the changes in snow cover area (SCA) of UIB from 2002 to 2022; climatic data from remotely sensed satellites (ERA5-Land) for the last 50 years were utilized to assess the climatic trends using modified Mann–Kendall trend test and available hydrological data was utilized to evaluate the hydrological characteristics of Gilgit-Baltistan from UIB; and correlations between snow cover and hydro-metrological variables are identified using Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall correlation coefficients according to availability of data. According to results, the maximum SCA varies between 27 and 89 % from summer to winter. SCA of Gilgit-Baltistan is experiencing a very slight decreasing trend with τ = −0.0187. Conversely, the streamflow of Gilgit-Baltistan showed an increasing trend; summer precipitation also underwent an increasing trend, and the temperature of Gilgit-Baltistan also exhibited an increasing trend. Thus, the streamflow of Gilgit-Baltistan is an amalgamation of rainfall in summer with snow and glacier melt due to temperature. The decrease in SCA and increase in supply suggested greater water availability, which may cause a flood downstream and indicate water scarcity in the future. Both conditions require prompt attention to prevent flooding, and the implementation of advanced water management strategies and climate-resilient infrastructure is essential to ensuring adequate water availability in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":356,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Management","volume":"382 ","pages":"Article 125375"},"PeriodicalIF":8.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Snow cover variability assessment and its interplay with hydro-climatic characteristics in data scarce region of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan\",\"authors\":\"Zeeshan Zafar , Adeel Ahmad Nadeem , Yuanyuan Zha , Hammad Gilani , Aqil Tariq\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125375\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>The upper Indus basin (UIB) provides a large portion of Pakistan's irrigation water supply. Snow and glacier melting contributes significantly to the annual flow of the UIB. A spatio-temporal assessment of snow cover dynamics and the hydrological response in the context of climate change is vital for better water resource management. This study utilized daily snow cover product (MOD10A1) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to evaluate the changes in snow cover area (SCA) of UIB from 2002 to 2022; climatic data from remotely sensed satellites (ERA5-Land) for the last 50 years were utilized to assess the climatic trends using modified Mann–Kendall trend test and available hydrological data was utilized to evaluate the hydrological characteristics of Gilgit-Baltistan from UIB; and correlations between snow cover and hydro-metrological variables are identified using Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall correlation coefficients according to availability of data. According to results, the maximum SCA varies between 27 and 89 % from summer to winter. SCA of Gilgit-Baltistan is experiencing a very slight decreasing trend with τ = −0.0187. Conversely, the streamflow of Gilgit-Baltistan showed an increasing trend; summer precipitation also underwent an increasing trend, and the temperature of Gilgit-Baltistan also exhibited an increasing trend. Thus, the streamflow of Gilgit-Baltistan is an amalgamation of rainfall in summer with snow and glacier melt due to temperature. The decrease in SCA and increase in supply suggested greater water availability, which may cause a flood downstream and indicate water scarcity in the future. Both conditions require prompt attention to prevent flooding, and the implementation of advanced water management strategies and climate-resilient infrastructure is essential to ensuring adequate water availability in the future.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":356,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Environmental Management\",\"volume\":\"382 \",\"pages\":\"Article 125375\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-04-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Environmental Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479725013519\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Environmental Management","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479725013519","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Snow cover variability assessment and its interplay with hydro-climatic characteristics in data scarce region of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan
The upper Indus basin (UIB) provides a large portion of Pakistan's irrigation water supply. Snow and glacier melting contributes significantly to the annual flow of the UIB. A spatio-temporal assessment of snow cover dynamics and the hydrological response in the context of climate change is vital for better water resource management. This study utilized daily snow cover product (MOD10A1) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to evaluate the changes in snow cover area (SCA) of UIB from 2002 to 2022; climatic data from remotely sensed satellites (ERA5-Land) for the last 50 years were utilized to assess the climatic trends using modified Mann–Kendall trend test and available hydrological data was utilized to evaluate the hydrological characteristics of Gilgit-Baltistan from UIB; and correlations between snow cover and hydro-metrological variables are identified using Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall correlation coefficients according to availability of data. According to results, the maximum SCA varies between 27 and 89 % from summer to winter. SCA of Gilgit-Baltistan is experiencing a very slight decreasing trend with τ = −0.0187. Conversely, the streamflow of Gilgit-Baltistan showed an increasing trend; summer precipitation also underwent an increasing trend, and the temperature of Gilgit-Baltistan also exhibited an increasing trend. Thus, the streamflow of Gilgit-Baltistan is an amalgamation of rainfall in summer with snow and glacier melt due to temperature. The decrease in SCA and increase in supply suggested greater water availability, which may cause a flood downstream and indicate water scarcity in the future. Both conditions require prompt attention to prevent flooding, and the implementation of advanced water management strategies and climate-resilient infrastructure is essential to ensuring adequate water availability in the future.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Environmental Management is a journal for the publication of peer reviewed, original research for all aspects of management and the managed use of the environment, both natural and man-made.Critical review articles are also welcome; submission of these is strongly encouraged.