政治经济模型与英国大选预测:终局?

IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE
John Kenny , Michael S. Lewis-Beck
{"title":"政治经济模型与英国大选预测:终局?","authors":"John Kenny ,&nbsp;Michael S. Lewis-Beck","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Political economy models have been applied to election forecasting for some time. However, in the United Kingdom, as well as elsewhere, other methodologies have come to the fore to take their place alongside the forecasting methodology of vote intention polling. Returning to a classic Political Economy model first successfully tested on the 2001 General Election, we ask whether it still has relevance today. After various time series analyses of UK general elections (1955 to the present), we find that it does. The model manages to forecast the vote share of the incumbent party rather accurately, via three predictor variables: economic performance, executive/prime ministerial approval, and the number of terms in office. For the 2024 contest, it forecasted, before-the-fact, a Conservative defeat of historic proportions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102933"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game?\",\"authors\":\"John Kenny ,&nbsp;Michael S. Lewis-Beck\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Political economy models have been applied to election forecasting for some time. However, in the United Kingdom, as well as elsewhere, other methodologies have come to the fore to take their place alongside the forecasting methodology of vote intention polling. Returning to a classic Political Economy model first successfully tested on the 2001 General Election, we ask whether it still has relevance today. After various time series analyses of UK general elections (1955 to the present), we find that it does. The model manages to forecast the vote share of the incumbent party rather accurately, via three predictor variables: economic performance, executive/prime ministerial approval, and the number of terms in office. For the 2024 contest, it forecasted, before-the-fact, a Conservative defeat of historic proportions.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48188,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Electoral Studies\",\"volume\":\"95 \",\"pages\":\"Article 102933\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-04-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Electoral Studies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379425000393\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"POLITICAL SCIENCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Electoral Studies","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379425000393","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"POLITICAL SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

政治经济学模型应用于选举预测已有一段时间。然而,在联合王国以及其他地方,其他方法已经脱颖而出,与投票意向调查的预测方法并列。回到在2001年大选中首次成功测试的经典政治经济学模型,我们问它今天是否仍然有意义。在对英国大选(1955年至今)的各种时间序列分析后,我们发现确实如此。该模型通过三个预测变量:经济表现、行政长官/总理支持率和任期数,相当准确地预测了现任政党的选票份额。对于2024年的大选,它提前预测保守党将遭遇历史性的失败。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game?
Political economy models have been applied to election forecasting for some time. However, in the United Kingdom, as well as elsewhere, other methodologies have come to the fore to take their place alongside the forecasting methodology of vote intention polling. Returning to a classic Political Economy model first successfully tested on the 2001 General Election, we ask whether it still has relevance today. After various time series analyses of UK general elections (1955 to the present), we find that it does. The model manages to forecast the vote share of the incumbent party rather accurately, via three predictor variables: economic performance, executive/prime ministerial approval, and the number of terms in office. For the 2024 contest, it forecasted, before-the-fact, a Conservative defeat of historic proportions.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Electoral Studies
Electoral Studies POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.00%
发文量
82
审稿时长
67 days
期刊介绍: Electoral Studies is an international journal covering all aspects of voting, the central act in the democratic process. Political scientists, economists, sociologists, game theorists, geographers, contemporary historians and lawyers have common, and overlapping, interests in what causes voters to act as they do, and the consequences. Electoral Studies provides a forum for these diverse approaches. It publishes fully refereed papers, both theoretical and empirical, on such topics as relationships between votes and seats, and between election outcomes and politicians reactions; historical, sociological, or geographical correlates of voting behaviour; rational choice analysis of political acts, and critiques of such analyses.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信