气候变化加剧了中国电力系统低碳转型的压力

IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
Tianpeng Wang , Xin Su , Yichuan Mei , Wei Xiong
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中国电力系统在碳中和目标下追求低碳转型的过程中面临越来越大的挑战。然而,目前的研究往往忽视了气候变化对中国电力系统供需平衡和脱碳路径的综合影响,特别是在省级层面。本研究通过将气候变化对电力需求和供应的双重影响纳入省级电力系统优化模型来解决这一差距。该模型通过成本最小化的方法实现各省之间的供需平衡。研究结果显示,气候变化极大地加剧了中国向低碳电力转型的压力,预计到2050年将导致总系统成本增加20%。这种成本上升是电力需求上升、火力发电效率下降和可再生能源产量变化的综合影响的结果。分析还揭示了显著的地区差异,南部和东部省份比西北部省份受气候变化的影响更大。将气候变化影响纳入低碳电力系统规划为区域战略提供了理论支持,强调了有针对性措施、电网灵活性和气候适应型基础设施的必要性,以实现中国的可持续能源目标。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Climate change intensifies low-carbon transition pressure in China's power system
China's power system is increasingly challenged in its pursuit of low-carbon transition under the carbon neutrality target. However, current studies often overlook the comprehensive impacts of climate change on the supply-demand balance and decarbonization pathways of China's power system, especially at the provincial level. This study addresses this gap by integrating the dual effects of climate change on electricity demand and supply into a provincial power system optimization model. The model achieves supply-demand balance across provinces through a cost-minimization approach. Findings reveal that climate change substantially intensifies the pressure on China's low-carbon power transition, leading to an estimated 20 % increase in total system costs by 2050. This cost escalation results from the combined effects of rising electricity demand, declining thermal generation efficiency, and renewable output variability. The analysis also reveals notable regional disparities, with southern and eastern provinces more affected by climate change than northwestern provinces. Incorporating climate change impacts into low-carbon power system planning provides theoretical support for regional strategies, emphasizing the need for targeted measures, grid flexibility, and climate-resilient infrastructure to achieve China's sustainable energy goals.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
12.60
自引率
10.10%
发文量
200
审稿时长
33 days
期刊介绍: Environmental Impact Assessment Review is an interdisciplinary journal that serves a global audience of practitioners, policymakers, and academics involved in assessing the environmental impact of policies, projects, processes, and products. The journal focuses on innovative theory and practice in environmental impact assessment (EIA). Papers are expected to present innovative ideas, be topical, and coherent. The journal emphasizes concepts, methods, techniques, approaches, and systems related to EIA theory and practice.
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