{"title":"气候变化加剧了中国电力系统低碳转型的压力","authors":"Tianpeng Wang , Xin Su , Yichuan Mei , Wei Xiong","doi":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.107949","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China's power system is increasingly challenged in its pursuit of low-carbon transition under the carbon neutrality target. However, current studies often overlook the comprehensive impacts of climate change on the supply-demand balance and decarbonization pathways of China's power system, especially at the provincial level. This study addresses this gap by integrating the dual effects of climate change on electricity demand and supply into a provincial power system optimization model. The model achieves supply-demand balance across provinces through a cost-minimization approach. Findings reveal that climate change substantially intensifies the pressure on China's low-carbon power transition, leading to an estimated 20 % increase in total system costs by 2050. This cost escalation results from the combined effects of rising electricity demand, declining thermal generation efficiency, and renewable output variability. The analysis also reveals notable regional disparities, with southern and eastern provinces more affected by climate change than northwestern provinces. Incorporating climate change impacts into low-carbon power system planning provides theoretical support for regional strategies, emphasizing the need for targeted measures, grid flexibility, and climate-resilient infrastructure to achieve China's sustainable energy goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":309,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 107949"},"PeriodicalIF":11.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Climate change intensifies low-carbon transition pressure in China's power system\",\"authors\":\"Tianpeng Wang , Xin Su , Yichuan Mei , Wei Xiong\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.107949\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>China's power system is increasingly challenged in its pursuit of low-carbon transition under the carbon neutrality target. However, current studies often overlook the comprehensive impacts of climate change on the supply-demand balance and decarbonization pathways of China's power system, especially at the provincial level. This study addresses this gap by integrating the dual effects of climate change on electricity demand and supply into a provincial power system optimization model. The model achieves supply-demand balance across provinces through a cost-minimization approach. Findings reveal that climate change substantially intensifies the pressure on China's low-carbon power transition, leading to an estimated 20 % increase in total system costs by 2050. This cost escalation results from the combined effects of rising electricity demand, declining thermal generation efficiency, and renewable output variability. The analysis also reveals notable regional disparities, with southern and eastern provinces more affected by climate change than northwestern provinces. Incorporating climate change impacts into low-carbon power system planning provides theoretical support for regional strategies, emphasizing the need for targeted measures, grid flexibility, and climate-resilient infrastructure to achieve China's sustainable energy goals.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":309,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Environmental Impact Assessment Review\",\"volume\":\"114 \",\"pages\":\"Article 107949\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":11.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-04-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Environmental Impact Assessment Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925525001465\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925525001465","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change intensifies low-carbon transition pressure in China's power system
China's power system is increasingly challenged in its pursuit of low-carbon transition under the carbon neutrality target. However, current studies often overlook the comprehensive impacts of climate change on the supply-demand balance and decarbonization pathways of China's power system, especially at the provincial level. This study addresses this gap by integrating the dual effects of climate change on electricity demand and supply into a provincial power system optimization model. The model achieves supply-demand balance across provinces through a cost-minimization approach. Findings reveal that climate change substantially intensifies the pressure on China's low-carbon power transition, leading to an estimated 20 % increase in total system costs by 2050. This cost escalation results from the combined effects of rising electricity demand, declining thermal generation efficiency, and renewable output variability. The analysis also reveals notable regional disparities, with southern and eastern provinces more affected by climate change than northwestern provinces. Incorporating climate change impacts into low-carbon power system planning provides theoretical support for regional strategies, emphasizing the need for targeted measures, grid flexibility, and climate-resilient infrastructure to achieve China's sustainable energy goals.
期刊介绍:
Environmental Impact Assessment Review is an interdisciplinary journal that serves a global audience of practitioners, policymakers, and academics involved in assessing the environmental impact of policies, projects, processes, and products. The journal focuses on innovative theory and practice in environmental impact assessment (EIA). Papers are expected to present innovative ideas, be topical, and coherent. The journal emphasizes concepts, methods, techniques, approaches, and systems related to EIA theory and practice.