Long-term successional dynamics and response strategies of harmful algal blooms to environmental changes in Tolo Harbour

The production and succession of harmful algae blooms (HABs) are attributed more to excessive nutrient concentrations and unbalanced nutrient stoichiometry than to other environmental drivers as the absence of long-term monitoring data. This study analyzed HABs succession patterns and key drivers in Tolo Harbour from 1986 to 2023, leveraging nearly 40 years of data. Effective governmental measures significantly improved water quality, with dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅), and Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations decreasing by 53 %, 80 %, 45 %, and 59 %, respectively. Annual HABs events dropped from 28 to 3, and species diversity declined from 6 to 2. However, toxic species frequency rose from 21 % to 46 %. Dinoflagellates emerged as dominant initial species, with a shift in secondary dominance from diatoms to ochrophytes and toxin types from diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP) to hemolytic toxins (HT). These shifts likely result from combined human and natural influences. Model simulations confirmed that red tide outbreaks, species succession, and shifts in toxin types were driven by declining pH, rising temperatures, unbalanced nitrogen-phosphorus ratios, organic nutrient increases, and algal antagonism. The study emphasizes the importance of the dual reduction of both DIN and DIP, meanwhile inorganic and organic nutrients, suggesting that overly focusing on or distract from one nutrient (e.g., DIP or DON) could lead to unintended ecological consequences, like the proliferation of rare and toxic species. We highlight the combined impacts of climate change (warming and ocean acidification) and anthropogenic activities (nutrient pollution and eutrophication) on HABs, particularly the number and toxin production. This research links policy changes to HABs dynamics, offering strategic recommendations for managing red tides and contribute novel perspectives on the impact of nutrient reduction in comparable bay ecosystems.