Lifetime risk of developing and dying from cancer in Henan Province, China: current status, temporal trends, and disparities

Objective

To understand the current status and changing trends in the lifetime risk of residents in Henan Province, China to develop and die from cancer.

Methods

Lifetime risk was estimated using the Adjusted for Multiple Primaries (AMP) method, incorporating cancer incidence, mortality, and all-cause mortality data from 55 cancer registries in Henan Province, China. Estimates were calculated overall and stratified by gender and area. The annual percent change (APC) in lifetime risk from 2010 to 2020, stratified by gender and cancer site, was estimated using a log-linear model.

Results

In 2020, the lifetime risk of developing and dying from cancer was 30.19 % (95 % CI: 29.63 %–30.76 %) and 23.62 % (95 % CI: 23.28 %–23.95 %), respectively. These estimates were higher in men, with values of 31.22 % (95 % CI: 30.59 %–31.85 %) for developing cancer and 26.73 % (95 % CI: 26.29 %–27.16 %) for dying from cancer, compared with women, who had values of 29.02 % (95 % CI: 28.12 %–29.91 %) and 20.08 % (95 % CI: 19.51 %–20.64 %), respectively. There were also geographical differences, with higher estimates in urban areas compared with rural areas. Residents had the highest lifetime risk of developing lung cancer, with a rate of 6.94 %, followed by breast cancer (4.14 %), stomach cancer (3.95 %), esophageal cancer (3.75 %), and liver cancer (2.86 %). Similarly, the highest lifetime risk of dying from cancer was observed for the following sites: lung (5.99 %), stomach (3.60 %), esophagus (3.39 %), liver (2.78 %), and colorectum (1.55 %). Overall, the lifetime risk of developing cancer increased, with an APC of 0.75 % (P < 0.05). Varying trends were observed across different cancer sites. There were gradual decreases in nasopharynx, esophagus, stomach, and liver cancers. Conversely, increasing trends were noted for most other sites, with the highest APCs observed in thyroid, prostate, lymphoma, kidney, and gallbladder cancers.

Conclusion

The lifetime risks of developing and dying from cancer were 30.19 % and 23.62 %, respectively. Variations in cancer risk across different regions, genders, specific cancer sites, and over calendar years provide important information for cancer prevention and policy making in the population.