Investing in the blue economy: Socioeconomic dynamics in the impact of government expenditure on marine ecosystem sustainability in Nigeria

Marine ecosystems, particularly fishing grounds, face increasing threats from escalating socioeconomic pressures. This study examines the socioeconomic dynamics of government expenditures on marine ecosystem sustainability in Nigeria, with a particular focus on the fishing ground load capacity factor (FGLCF). Using data from 1981--2022, the analysis employs dynamic autoregressive distributed lag modelling and kernel-based regularized least squares to uncover the impacts of disaggregated government spending—administration, economic services, and social and community services—on marine sustainability. The findings reveal that administrative expenditure negatively affects FGLCF, reflecting inefficiencies and a diversion of resources from ecological priorities. Economic service spending has an insignificant impact, underscoring the need for targeted investments in sustainable infrastructure. Conversely, social and community expenditures positively influence FGLCF, demonstrating their critical role in promoting sustainable practices through education, healthcare, and community engagement. The study also identified population growth and economic expansion as significant drivers of marine resource depletion. These findings offer actionable insights for policymakers to achieve a balanced relationship between economic progress and the long-term resilience of marine ecosystems in Nigeria. Key policy measures include optimizing resource allocation, mandating environmental assessments for infrastructure projects, and significantly increasing investments in education and healthcare. These strategies aim to align fiscal policies with ecological sustainability, ensuring both economic progress and the preservation of vital natural resources.