Trends and magnitude of urban-rural food GHG inequalities over 33 years (1990–2022): Drivers, disparities, and future trends

The food system is a significant source of anthropogenic emissions. China, with only 7 % of the global arable land, feeds 20 % of the world's population and is the largest national emitter of greenhouse gas emissons(GHGs), including those from its food system. The reduction of food emissions is imperative for the fulfillment of China's nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and numerous Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although extensive research has been conducted, the micro-level and sub-national heterogeneity in food GHGs and their fundamental determinants have been insufficiently explored. This study, drawing upon data from official government websites over a span of 33 years (1990–2022), utilizes the Gini index, Theil index, and Ridge Regression to scrutinize the inequalities in per capita food greenhouse gas emissions (PFGHGs), with a particular focus on the urban-rural divide. It identifies the fundamental drivers contributing to disparities and investigates future trends in PFGHGs. Results indicate that during the study period, the PFGHGs of most urban and rural areas initially declined and then significantly increased, with a more pronounced rise observed in rural areas. Therefore, the gap in urban and rural PFGHGs is gradually narrowing. There has been a decrease in plant-based PFGHGs in both urban and rural areas, which has been offset by an increase in animal-based PFGHGs, particularly in rural areas. This shift has contributed to a reduction in the inequality of PFGHGs between urban and rural areas. Drivers of PFGHGs are identified and extensively discussed, including how these factors can inform the formulation of micro-level policies and programs. These findings are significant for informed policymaking by stakeholders at national to local levels, as well as for for farm decision-making processes.