The potential of active modes to reduce short car trips. A data-driven approach

Motorized individual mobility is associated with numerous negative externalities, necessitating a shift toward more sustainable transport modes. One potential strategy is to replace short car trips with walking and cycling. This study aims to better understand the behavioral patterns underlying short car trips and to quantify potential CO₂ savings from their substitution. We analyze vehicle sensor data from the BMW Group, covering 89.4 million trips made by 149,709 vehicles in Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium between June 2021 and October 2022. On average, trips under 5 km account for 38.2 percent of all trips, while those under 1 km represent 9.2 percent. These shares show no economically significant variation across seasons, countries, spatial structures, engine types, or driver types. Replacing all trips under 5 km could result in an average monthly CO₂ saving of 7.4 kg per vehicle, while replacing all trips under 1 km would save 0.7 kg CO₂. These findings highlight the persistent reliance on cars, even for short-distance travel.