Effect of climate pledges on croplands

By calibrating global change models with recent 1.5-°C country-specific climate pledges, Gao et al. generated maps that quantify land-system type transformations over the next 75 years. Whereas previous research (P. Potapov et al. Nat. Food 3, 19–28; 2022) predicted accelerated cropland expansion during the 21st century, this study instead projected a 12.8% reduction in croplands globally. Although these reductions are widespread, they are most substantial in countries in the Global South. For example, Vietnam is expected to lose 66.6% of its croplands — a loss further compounded by a high dependence on food imports.

Alongside urbanization, ecological restoration is placing increasing pressure on existing croplands; countries across the Global South are burdened with the dilemma of prioritizing the intertwined goals of food security and meeting the 1.5-°C target. Gao et al. call for international trade liberalization and facilitation to buffer food shortages in the most badly affected regions. As for all climate action, this will require a degree of multilateral cooperation that feels increasingly out of reach.