Association between estimated glucose disposal rate and prediabetes reversion and progression: a nationwide cohort study of middle-aged and elderly people in China.

Objective: Prediabetes is a chronic condition characterized by elevated blood glucose levels that are not yet high enough to be classified as diabetes. It is particularly prevalent among middle-aged and elderly populations. This study aims to investigate the association between a novel marker of insulin resistance-the estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR)-and the reversion of prediabetes to normoglycaemia or progression to diabetes in a Chinese population.

Methods: This prospective cohort study utilized baseline data from the 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study involving 2,600 prediabetic participants aged 45 years and older, along with follow-up data from 2015. The study's endpoints were defined according to the American Diabetes Association criteria, including maintenance of the prediabetic state, reversion to normoglycaemia, or progression to diabetes. Multivariable Cox regression models and restricted cubic spline regression were used to assess the association between eGDR and the reversion or progression of prediabetes in middle-aged and elderly populations, followed by stratified analyses to explore potential population-specific dependencies.

Results: Over a median follow-up period of 4 years, 1,615 (62.1%) participants remained in the prediabetic state, 586 (22.5%) reverted to normoglycaemia, and 399 (15.3%) progressed to diabetes. In multivariable Cox regression analyses, our results indicated that eGDR was positively associated with the reversion of prediabetes to normoglycaemia [Hazard Ratio = 1.14, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.05, 1.23], and negatively associated with the progression of prediabetes to diabetes (HR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.93). Restricted cubic spline analysis revealed a nonlinear, L-shaped association between eGDR and the reversion of prediabetes to normoglycaemia, with segmented Cox regression identifying an eGDR threshold of 6.81 as the point of significant change in the likelihood of prediabetes reversion.

Conclusion: This prospective cohort study among middle-aged and elderly Chinese populations suggested that higher eGDR promoted the reversion of prediabetes and provided a protective effect against its progression to diabetes.