点对点借贷与货币政策传导的关系：来自中华人民共和国的证据

IF 4.8 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI:10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102770

Nuobu Renzhi , John Beirne

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文实证研究了P2P借贷水平对中国货币政策传导的影响。使用依赖于国家的地方预测，我们发现货币政策冲击的宏观经济影响在P2P借贷市场的繁荣阶段被抑制。在非繁荣状态下，工业生产和通货膨胀的脉冲响应显著为负。相比之下，在经济繁荣时期，工业生产和通胀的反应则较为温和。在2017年以来对P2P借贷的监管更加严格的背景下，我们的研究结果表明，P2P借贷活动的显著缩减及其在中国的逐渐下降可能会增强货币政策传导的有效性。我们的论文还表明，需要进一步研究金融创新与货币政策之间的相互作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The nexus of peer-to-peer lending and monetary policy transmission: Evidence from the People's Republic of China

This paper empirically investigates how the level of peer-to-peer (P2P) lending affects monetary policy transmission in the People's Republic of China (PRC). Using state-dependent local projections, we find that the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks are dampened during the boom phase of the P2P lending market. The impulse responses of industrial production and inflation are significantly negative in the non-boom state. In contrast, the responses of industrial production and inflation are muted in the boom state. Set against the context of stricter regulation on P2P lending since 2017, our results indicate that the significant scaling back of P2P lending activity and its gradual decline in the PRC could enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Our paper also suggests that further work is needed on interactions between financial innovation and monetary policy.

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来源期刊

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

6.50%

发文量

157

期刊介绍： The Pacific-Basin Finance Journal is aimed at providing a specialized forum for the publication of academic research on capital markets of the Asia-Pacific countries. Primary emphasis will be placed on the highest quality empirical and theoretical research in the following areas: • Market Micro-structure; • Investment and Portfolio Management; • Theories of Market Equilibrium; • Valuation of Financial and Real Assets; • Behavior of Asset Prices in Financial Sectors; • Normative Theory of Financial Management; • Capital Markets of Development; • Market Mechanisms.