Current bioclimatic suitability and climate change impacts on the risk of cacao moniliasis invasion in Pará

The arrival of cacao frosty pod rot (Moniliophthora roreri) in the Brazilian Amazon increases the risk of pest invasion in cacao-producing areas of Pará, potentially causing losses of up to 100 % of production, as observed in outbreaks of the pest in Tropical America. Thus, the objective was to identify and quantify the potential and future bioclimatic suitability, as well as risk pathways in the movement of M. roreri, to support the strategic planning of phytosanitary defense management in the state of Pará. The ecological niche model was developed using 49 occurrence points of the pest in Tropical America, elevation data, five bioclimatic variables under current conditions, and projections from SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 pathways for the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100, based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) available on WorldClim. The model indicated high bioclimatic risk areas for invasion in Juruti, Jacareacanga, Terra Santa, and Oriximiná, as well as broad potential bioclimatic suitability in cacao-producing regions (Transamazônica and Transcametá). All future scenarios suggest an increase in temperature, a decrease in precipitation, and a potentially unsuitable climate for pest survival in Pará, with reductions of 5.3 % and 3.8 % under the SSP1-2.6 pathway, and greater impacts under SSP5-8.5, with 5.7 % and 12.12 %, respectively, for the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100, compared to the potential projection. There will be cacao-producing areas with medium to low bioclimatic risk potential under climate change conditions, where the pathogen-host relationship may undergo changes, especially in the Transamazônica region. The ecological niche model indicates the need for urgent monitoring actions in Juruti and Jacareacanga, assisting in planning and decision-making to combat M. roreri, protect plant health, and ensure the competitiveness of the cacao production chain in the state of Pará.