Retrospective Clinical Study on Early Prediction of Anastomotic Leak After Esophageal Cancer Resection Based on the Combination of Platelet Count and Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio.

Objective:  The systemic inflammatory response may influence the occurrence of postoperative complications. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive potential of combining platelet count and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (COP-NLR) for esophagogastric anastomotic leak (AL) following esophageal cancer surgery.

Methods:  We enrolled patients who developed AL after radical surgery for esophageal cancer and those who did not develop AL after the surgery at the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, China, from June 2019 to February 2022. We analyzed the correlation between AL and several risk factors, including COP-NLR. Patients were categorized as COP-NLR 2 if both platelet count and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were elevated, COP-NLR 1 if either parameter was elevated, and COP-NLR 0 if neither parameter showed elevation.

Results:  A total of 190 patients were included in this study. The incidence of AL after esophageal cancer surgery was 14.7%. The critical values of preoperative NLR and preoperative platelet count were 2.41 (sensitivity 48.8%, specificity 92.9%, and area under the curve (AUC) 0.728) and 186 × 10⁹/L (sensitivity 45.3%, specificity 78.9%, and AUC 0.667), respectively. According to multivariate analysis, COP-NLR was identified as an independent risk factor for AL (COP-NLR 1 vs. COP-NLR 0: odds ratio (OR) 4.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-23.61; COP-NLR 2 vs. COP-NLR 0: OR 11.12, 95% CI 2.31-53.41).

Conclusion:  COP-NLR is a new predictor for AL after esophageal cancer resection.