East Central Europe’s exposure to China: ephemeral sources of susceptibility

China’s presence in ECE is characterized by its fragmented structure and continued divergences between societal perceptions and political stances toward Beijing, thereby rendering the exposure to its influence ephemeral. The ECE-China engagements transcend the conventional framework of material-economic considerations, veering into the domain of ideational influences, wherein it predominantly manifests through elite-level identity dynamics and the intricacies of rhetorical politics. Within this premise, the paper employs analytical eclecticism to operationalize theories on normative power and symbolic domination in synthesis with the concepts of liminality and elite capture to explain ECE’s exposure to China. With an emphasis on the historical ideational paradigms and institutional-political dynamics, the paper delineates two pivotal factors that were instrumental in elucidating the contours of regional vulnerability. First, it foregrounds the historical geopolitical liminality of ECE, dissecting its contemporary expression in the strategic rivalry between the development models propagated by the EU and China. This juxtaposition is starkly characterized by a cleavage between Beijing’s pragmatic-driven framework embodied in the 16/14 + 1 platform and ECE’s existence within a values-based paradigm upheld by Brussels. Within this dichotomy of fundamentally divergent development paradigms, ECE nations undergoing an illiberal turn or lacking in resilient state capacity yet striving to assert their geopolitical subjectivity have increasingly displayed an eastward pivot in their foreign relations. Secondly, the paper addresses the interplay between post-communist institutional development and elite formation and their correlation with susceptibility to China’s influence, emphasizing the elite capture phenomenon, predominantly evident among the more authoritarian-leaning countries of the region.