选民们什么时候“团结在国旗周围”？政治信息的显著性

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105356

Yatish Arya , Apurav Yash Bhatiya

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引用次数: 0

摘要

暴露在冲突中会损害现任政府的选举前景，还是会产生“团结一致”的效应？此外，政治家和媒体在将冲突曝光转化为选票方面发挥了什么作用？利用印度阵亡士兵家乡选区冲突暴露的外生变异和差异中的差异回归，我们发现这些选区的在职选票份额增加，表明存在显著的“团结在旗帜周围”效应。只有在政治演讲和媒体报道中受到高度关注的冲突才表现出这种效果。这些发现强调了政治信息在塑造选民对冲突的反应方面的重要性。

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When do voters ‘rally around the flag’? The salience of political messages

Does exposure to conflict harm the electoral prospects of the incumbent government or generate a “rally around the flag” effect? Additionally, what role do politicians and media play in converting conflict exposure into votes? Using exogenous variation in conflict exposure in the home constituencies of deceased soldiers in India and a difference-in-differences regression, we find an increase in incumbent vote share in these constituencies, indicating a significant “rally around the flag” effect. Only conflicts receiving heightened attention in political speeches and media coverage exhibit this effect. These findings highlight the salience of political messages in shaping voter responses to conflict.

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来源期刊

Journal of Public Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

14.10

自引率

2.00%

发文量

139

审稿时长

70 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Public Economics aims to promote original scientific research in the field of public economics, focusing on the utilization of contemporary economic theory and quantitative analysis methodologies. It serves as a platform for the international scholarly community to engage in discussions on public policy matters.