海洋风险对宏观经济和全球海洋经济活动的动态影响

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.035

Shuiyang Chen , Bin Meng , Bingcheng Qiu , Haibo Kuang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们对来自七家报纸的1793935篇新闻文章进行了文本分析，以综合衡量七个维度的不利海事事件和相关风险，从而开发了基于新闻的海事风险指数（MRI）。我们验证了MRI在捕获海事风险方面的专业性、有效性和稳健性。磁共振成像对宏观经济市场表现、货币政策、就业和工业生产的各个方面产生不利影响。更高的海运风险预示着航运业的产出将下降，从而降低航运能力，并对全球海上贸易活动产生重大影响。核磁共振成像的创新包括关于港口拥堵和运费飙升的关键信息，在解释和预示港口拥堵方面发挥着关键作用。它作为干散货和集装箱航运市场的领先（价格发现）指标，与油轮航运市场表现出双向因果关系。我们的研究结果不仅促进了对海上运输系统风险及其与宏观经济相互作用的理解，而且为改善运输政策和实践提供了实际应用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Dynamic effects of maritime risk on macroeconomic and global maritime economic activity

We employ textual analysis on 1793935 news articles from seven newspapers to comprehensively measure adverse maritime events and associated risks across seven dimensions, resulting in the development of a news-based Maritime Risk Index (MRI). We validate the professionalism, effectiveness, and robustness of MRI in capturing maritime risks. The MRI adversely affects various aspects of the macroeconomic market performance, monetary policy, employment, and industrial production. Higher maritime risk predicts a decrease in the output of the shipping sector, reducing shipping capacity and significantly impacting global maritime trade activities. MRI innovations include crucial information about port congestion and surging freight rates, playing a key role in explaining and foreshadowing port congestion. It serves as a leading (price discovery) indicator in the dry bulk and container shipping markets and exhibits a bidirectional causal relationship with the tanker shipping market. Our findings not only advance the understanding of maritime transport system risks and their interaction with macroeconomic, but also offer practical applications for improving transport policy and practice.

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.