Climate Change and Human Pressure: Assessing the Vulnerability of Snow Leopard (Panthera uncia) Habitat Integrated With Prey Distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Climate change is significantly altering the distribution of large carnivores and their primary prey species, with particular emphasis on the changing prey distribution in high-altitude regions. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, known for its rich biodiversity, is highly sensitive to climate change, affecting the habitats of snow leopards (Panthera uncia) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur). Our study identified blue sheep as the primary prey of snow leopards through metagenomic analysis and used bioclimatic data and Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) information to model habitat suitability under three climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). Projections showed that under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, snow leopard habitats will decrease by 13.0% and 23.4%, while blue sheep habitats will decrease by 38.3% and 49.7%, respectively. These habitats are expected to shift to higher altitudes, with snow leopards experiencing a more significant shift. Based on these findings, we recommend adjusting protected area boundaries for S1 (Ideal distribution range), establishing ecological corridors for S2 (stepping stone), and implementing targeted measures to mitigate human-wildlife conflicts in S3 (potential conflict area). To protect these species, international efforts to reduce carbon emissions, cross-administrative cooperation, and community-based conservation strategies are essential.