Association Between Triglyceride and Incident Diabetes Mellitus: A Secondary Retrospective Analysis Based on a Chinese Cohort Study.

Background: The association between triglyceride(TG) levels and the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) continues to be a subject of considerable interest and debate within the scientific community. To date, there has been a lack of studies specifically examining this relationship within the Chinese population. This study seeks to elucidate the correlation between TG levels and the incidence of DM among the Chinese demographic.

Methods: This study constitutes a secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort investigation comprising 202,888 Chinese participants who were free of DM at baseline and were subsequently followed from 2010 to 2016. Cox regression method and sensitivity analyses were used to examine the relationship between TG levels and DM. To examine the potential non-linear relationship between TG levels and the incidence of DM, Cox proportional hazards regression incorporating cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting was employed. Additionally, a two-piece Cox proportional hazards regression model was utilized to identify the inflection point at which TG levels influence the risk of developing DM.

Results: In participants with DM, baseline TG levels were elevated. After adjusting for confounding variables, baseline TG levels were positively associated with incident DM. (HR:1.25,95% CI:1.21-1.30,P<0.001). In addition, we conducted sensitivity analyses to ensure the results were robust. There was a 88% increase in DM risk from the top TG tertile to the bottom TG tertile.Our research discovered a significant link between TG and DM when TG levels were below 1.27 mmol/L (HR:2.35, 95% CI: 1.95-2.83,P < 0.001).

Conclusion: This study shows that TG was positively and non-linearly associated with the risk of DM after adjusting for other confounding factors.Below 1.27 mmol/L, increasing TG levels greatly heighten the risk of DM, whereas above this level, the risk is lower.