Invasion risk posed by the pet trade

The legal trade in exotic pets is linked to the establishment of nonnative species and climate change compounds the risk of invasion, overwhelming management efforts. We characterized the world's largest market for exotic pets—the US—by providing a real-time snapshot of species with invasion potential, and assessed the current and future risk posed to native systems. We found a diverse marketplace of 1178 terrestrial vertebrates, predominantly tropical species. Using 2818 brick-and-mortar pet stores, we developed spatial models of propagule risk, from which it was determined that future climate change may increase climate suitability by 194%, which in turn equates to 83% of total land area in the contiguous US becoming suitable for invasion by 2080. Rapid growth in the exotic pet trade industry is expected to exacerbate current findings, especially at southernmost latitudes. The real-time nature of this study provides more actionable management information than outdated import data.