Cycling and Running are More Predictive of Overall Race Finish Time than Swimming in IRONMAN® Age Group Triathletes.

Background: Several studies have evaluated the most predictive discipline (swimming, cycling, and running) of performance in elite IRONMAN^® triathletes. However, no study has ever determined the most decisive discipline for IRONMAN^® age group triathletes. The present study analyzed the importance of the three disciplines on the overall race times in IRONMAN^® age group triathletes, in order to try and determine the most predictive discipline in IRONMAN^® for age group triathletes, and whether the importance of the split disciplines changes with increasing age.

Methods: This cross-sectional study used 687,696 IRONMAN^® age group triathletes race records (553,608 from males and 134,088 from females). Age group athletes were divided in 5-year age groups (i.e., 18-24, 25-29, 30-34,…,70-74, and last 75 + years). The relationships between split disciplines (i.e., swimming, cycling, and running) and overall race times were evaluated using Spearman and Pearson correlations. A multi-linear regression model was used to calculate their prediction strength.

Results: The overall finish time correlated more with cycling and running times than with swimming times for both male and female IRONMAN^® age group triathletes (r = 0.88 and r = 0.89 for females; r = 0.89 and r = 0.90 for males, respectively). All correlation coefficients decreased with increasing age, which was more noticeable for the swimming discipline.

Conclusions: Both cycling and running are more predictive than swimming in IRONMAN^® age group triathletes, where the correlation between the overall race times and the split times decreased with increasing age more in swimming than in cycling and running. These insights are useful for IRONMAN^® age group triathletes and their coaches in planning their IRONMAN^® race preparation and concentrating training on the more predictive disciplines.