英国电动滑板车碰撞严重程度:使用机器学习技术和随机参数logit进行比较分析,其均值和方差均存在异质性

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION
Ali Agheli , Kayvan Aghabayk , Matin Sadeghi , Subasish Das
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引用次数: 0

摘要

城市地区越来越多地使用电动滑板车引起了人们对安全的担忧,有必要研究有效的安全干预措施。本研究使用统计学和机器学习方法分析了英国三年的电动滑板车碰撞数据,以确定影响碰撞严重程度的关键因素。我们采用随机参数logit模型并研究了几种机器学习算法,其中XGBoost表现最好。分析显示,严重的伤害更有可能发生在涉及老年骑手的撞车事故中,发生在有灯光的夜晚,以及在T字形路口、交错路口或十字路口。XGBoost-SHAP分析和随机参数均值和方差的异质性进一步揭示了微妙的模式。虽然涉及女性骑手的撞车事故或在让路或不受控制的路口发生的撞车事故通常没有那么严重的后果,但特殊情况(年轻女性骑手或夜间在这些路口发生的撞车事故)会增加严重伤害的风险。这些见解主张进行有针对性的公共政策调整和基础设施建设,以减轻电动滑板车的风险,确保所有人口的城市交通更安全。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
E-scooter crash severity in the United Kingdom: A comparative analysis using machine learning techniques and random parameters logit with heterogeneity in means and variances
The increasing use of e-scooters in urban areas has raised safety concerns, necessitating research for effective safety interventions. This study analyzes three years of e-scooter crash data from the United Kingdom using statistical and machine learning methods to identify key factors influencing crash severity. We employed a random parameters logit model and investigated several machine learning algorithms, with XGBoost performing best. Analysis reveals that severe injuries are more likely in crashes involving senior riders, at night with lighting, and at T, staggered, or crossroad junctions. Further insights from the XGBoost-SHAP analysis and heterogeneity in means and variances of random parameters revealed nuanced patterns. While crashes involving female riders or crashes at give way or uncontrolled junctions typically have less severe outcomes, specific condition (young female riders or nighttime crashes at these junctions) intensify the risk of severe injuries. These insights advocate for tailored public policy adjustments and infrastructure enhancements to mitigate e-scooter risks, ensuring safer urban mobility for all demographics.
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来源期刊
IATSS Research
IATSS Research TRANSPORTATION-
CiteScore
6.40
自引率
6.20%
发文量
44
审稿时长
42 weeks
期刊介绍: First published in 1977 as an international journal sponsored by the International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences, IATSS Research has contributed to the dissemination of interdisciplinary wisdom on ideal mobility, particularly in Asia. IATSS Research is an international refereed journal providing a platform for the exchange of scientific findings on transportation and safety across a wide range of academic fields, with particular emphasis on the links between scientific findings and practice in society and cultural contexts. IATSS Research welcomes submission of original research articles and reviews that satisfy the following conditions: 1.Relevant to transportation and safety, and the multiple impacts of transportation systems on security, human health, and the environment. 2.Contains important policy and practical implications based on scientific evidence in the applicable academic field. In addition to welcoming general submissions, IATSS Research occasionally plans and publishes special feature sections and special issues composed of invited articles addressing specific topics.
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