Demographic development in waste production forecasts for energy recovery planning

The transition to a circular economy is driving dynamic changes in waste management. While many waste fractions cannot be materially recovered, energy recovery remains a viable solution. Planning a long-term sustainable system requires accurate forecasts of waste production and treatment, closely tied to population trends, which pose challenges for smaller territorial units due to data variability. This study analyses the impact of demographic projections on waste production forecasts, focusing on fractions suitable for energy recovery with the territorial detail. The output is the identification of the difference in forecasts including demography development and without this factor. In the Czech Republic, population change of approximately 0.5 % is expected by 2035. Despite this, significant differences emerge at the regional and micro-regional levels. Forecasts at the micro-regional level vary by more than 10 %, with the extreme case where the difference exceeds 30 %. Forecasts indicate that municipal waste suitable for energy recovery will exceed 2600 kt, while the current facility capacity in the Czech Republic is only about 750 kt. Increasing waste-to-energy facility capacities will be necessary. The findings of this study enable targeted planning of new capacities in regions with high expected waste production and thus create a sustainable system of waste management.