中国南方水稻区通过调整种植日期和更换品种来有效适应气候变暖

IF 6.1 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Agricultural Systems Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI:10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104330

Yixuan Wang , Shuo Li , Jiongchao Zhao , Chong Wang , Yupeng Feng , Mingyu Zhao , Xiaoyu Shi , Fu Chen , Qingquan Chu

{"title":"中国南方水稻区通过调整种植日期和更换品种来有效适应气候变暖","authors":"Yixuan Wang , Shuo Li , Jiongchao Zhao , Chong Wang , Yupeng Feng , Mingyu Zhao , Xiaoyu Shi , Fu Chen , Qingquan Chu","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104330","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>The southern rice cultivation system in China stands out as the most intricate due to its diverse climate and complex terrain, compounded by the interplay between single and double cropping rice. However, the current regionalization of adaptation strategies of rice cropping systems fails to accurately reflect the evolving dynamics brought about by regional variations in rice production and climate warming.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>Our aim was to address the challenge of climate change on rice production by evaluating its effects on the rice growth period and potential yield. We also assessed the potential of adjusting planting dates and implementing varietal replacement to mitigate the impacts of climate change on rice production across different maturity stages.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>Using phenological, climate, and land use data, we employed the validated ORYZA model to analyze the impact of climate change on the growth period and yield of rice in southern China from 1961 to 2020. Subsequently, simulations were carried out for seven scenarios to assess the effects of adjusting planting dates and replacing rice varieties on rice production in the region.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Climate change shortened the whole growth period (WGP) by 0.63 ± 0.11 days•10a<sup>−1</sup> and decreased potential yield by 239.98 ± 22.76 kg•ha<sup>−1</sup>•10a<sup>−1</sup> over six decades. Changing the planting dates of single and double season rice can lengthen or shorten the growth period of rice, affecting potential yields accordingly. Varietal replacement increased WGP and potential yield by 12.64 days and 2451.07 kg•ha<sup>−1</sup> for single rice, but decreased WGP by 13.12 days while increasing yield by 2161.57 kg•ha<sup>−1</sup> for double rice. Combined adaptation strategies of planting date and varietal replacement resulted in a 10.7 % increase in WGP and a 19.3 % increase in yield for single rice, and a 7.5 % reduction in WGP but a 9.5 % increase in potential yield for double rice. Our research results show that under changing climatic conditions, adjusting planting dates and implementing varietal replacement can effectively alter the growth period of rice, leading to an increasing trend in potential yield.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>Variety replacement and sowing date adjustments are two of the most important strategies in crop production management. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of how both measures impact agricultural production. The findings highlight the significant role of planting date adjustments and variety replacement in adapting to climate warming in southern China, offering critical insights for ensuring food security in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 104330"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Planting date adjustment and varietal replacement can effectively adapt to climate warming in China southern rice area\",\"authors\":\"Yixuan Wang , Shuo Li , Jiongchao Zhao , Chong Wang , Yupeng Feng , Mingyu Zhao , Xiaoyu Shi , Fu Chen , Qingquan Chu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104330\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><div>The southern rice cultivation system in China stands out as the most intricate due to its diverse climate and complex terrain, compounded by the interplay between single and double cropping rice. However, the current regionalization of adaptation strategies of rice cropping systems fails to accurately reflect the evolving dynamics brought about by regional variations in rice production and climate warming.</div></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><div>Our aim was to address the challenge of climate change on rice production by evaluating its effects on the rice growth period and potential yield. We also assessed the potential of adjusting planting dates and implementing varietal replacement to mitigate the impacts of climate change on rice production across different maturity stages.</div></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><div>Using phenological, climate, and land use data, we employed the validated ORYZA model to analyze the impact of climate change on the growth period and yield of rice in southern China from 1961 to 2020. Subsequently, simulations were carried out for seven scenarios to assess the effects of adjusting planting dates and replacing rice varieties on rice production in the region.</div></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><div>Climate change shortened the whole growth period (WGP) by 0.63 ± 0.11 days•10a<sup>−1</sup> and decreased potential yield by 239.98 ± 22.76 kg•ha<sup>−1</sup>•10a<sup>−1</sup> over six decades. Changing the planting dates of single and double season rice can lengthen or shorten the growth period of rice, affecting potential yields accordingly. Varietal replacement increased WGP and potential yield by 12.64 days and 2451.07 kg•ha<sup>−1</sup> for single rice, but decreased WGP by 13.12 days while increasing yield by 2161.57 kg•ha<sup>−1</sup> for double rice. Combined adaptation strategies of planting date and varietal replacement resulted in a 10.7 % increase in WGP and a 19.3 % increase in yield for single rice, and a 7.5 % reduction in WGP but a 9.5 % increase in potential yield for double rice. Our research results show that under changing climatic conditions, adjusting planting dates and implementing varietal replacement can effectively alter the growth period of rice, leading to an increasing trend in potential yield.</div></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><div>Variety replacement and sowing date adjustments are two of the most important strategies in crop production management. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of how both measures impact agricultural production. The findings highlight the significant role of planting date adjustments and variety replacement in adapting to climate warming in southern China, offering critical insights for ensuring food security in the region.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":7730,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Agricultural Systems\",\"volume\":\"226 \",\"pages\":\"Article 104330\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-03-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Agricultural Systems\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X25000708\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Agricultural Systems","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X25000708","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

中国南方的水稻种植系统因其多样的气候和复杂的地形，以及单季稻和双季稻之间的相互作用而显得最为复杂。然而，目前水稻种植制度适应策略的区域化未能准确反映水稻生产的区域差异和气候变暖带来的演变动态。我们的目的是通过评估气候变化对水稻生育期和潜在产量的影响来应对气候变化对水稻生产的挑战。我们还评估了调整种植日期和实施品种替换的潜力，以减轻气候变化对不同成熟期水稻生产的影响。方法利用物候、气候和土地利用数据，采用经验证的ORYZA模型，分析1961 - 2020年气候变化对中国南方水稻生育期和产量的影响。随后，进行了7种情景的模拟，以评估调整种植日期和更换水稻品种对该地区水稻生产的影响。结果与结论60 a间气候变化使全生育期（WGP）缩短了0.63±0.11天•10a−1，使潜在产量减少了239.98±22.76 kg•ha−1•10a−1。改变单季稻和双季稻的种植日期可以延长或缩短水稻的生育期，从而影响潜在产量。单稻品种置换使WGP和潜在产量分别提高12.64天和2451.07 kg•ha - 1，而双稻品种置换使WGP降低13.12天和增产2161.57 kg•ha - 1。种植日期和品种替代的组合适应策略导致单稻WGP增加10.7%，产量增加19.3%；双稻WGP减少7.5%，但潜在产量增加9.5%。研究结果表明，在气候条件变化的条件下，通过调整种植日期和实施品种更替，可以有效改变水稻的生育期，从而使潜在产量呈上升趋势。品种更换和播期调整是作物生产管理中最重要的两种策略。这项研究首次全面分析了这两项指标对农业生产的影响。研究结果强调了种植日期调整和品种更换对中国南方适应气候变暖的重要作用，为确保该地区的粮食安全提供了重要见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Planting date adjustment and varietal replacement can effectively adapt to climate warming in China southern rice area

查看原文本刊更多论文

Planting date adjustment and varietal replacement can effectively adapt to climate warming in China southern rice area

CONTEXT

The southern rice cultivation system in China stands out as the most intricate due to its diverse climate and complex terrain, compounded by the interplay between single and double cropping rice. However, the current regionalization of adaptation strategies of rice cropping systems fails to accurately reflect the evolving dynamics brought about by regional variations in rice production and climate warming.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to address the challenge of climate change on rice production by evaluating its effects on the rice growth period and potential yield. We also assessed the potential of adjusting planting dates and implementing varietal replacement to mitigate the impacts of climate change on rice production across different maturity stages.

METHODS

Using phenological, climate, and land use data, we employed the validated ORYZA model to analyze the impact of climate change on the growth period and yield of rice in southern China from 1961 to 2020. Subsequently, simulations were carried out for seven scenarios to assess the effects of adjusting planting dates and replacing rice varieties on rice production in the region.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Climate change shortened the whole growth period (WGP) by 0.63 ± 0.11 days•10a⁻¹ and decreased potential yield by 239.98 ± 22.76 kg•ha⁻¹•10a⁻¹ over six decades. Changing the planting dates of single and double season rice can lengthen or shorten the growth period of rice, affecting potential yields accordingly. Varietal replacement increased WGP and potential yield by 12.64 days and 2451.07 kg•ha⁻¹ for single rice, but decreased WGP by 13.12 days while increasing yield by 2161.57 kg•ha⁻¹ for double rice. Combined adaptation strategies of planting date and varietal replacement resulted in a 10.7 % increase in WGP and a 19.3 % increase in yield for single rice, and a 7.5 % reduction in WGP but a 9.5 % increase in potential yield for double rice. Our research results show that under changing climatic conditions, adjusting planting dates and implementing varietal replacement can effectively alter the growth period of rice, leading to an increasing trend in potential yield.

SIGNIFICANCE

Variety replacement and sowing date adjustments are two of the most important strategies in crop production management. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of how both measures impact agricultural production. The findings highlight the significant role of planting date adjustments and variety replacement in adapting to climate warming in southern China, offering critical insights for ensuring food security in the region.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Agricultural Systems 农林科学-农业综合

CiteScore

13.30

自引率

7.60%

发文量

174

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： Agricultural Systems is an international journal that deals with interactions - among the components of agricultural systems, among hierarchical levels of agricultural systems, between agricultural and other land use systems, and between agricultural systems and their natural, social and economic environments. The scope includes the development and application of systems analysis methodologies in the following areas: Systems approaches in the sustainable intensification of agriculture; pathways for sustainable intensification; crop-livestock integration; farm-level resource allocation; quantification of benefits and trade-offs at farm to landscape levels; integrative, participatory and dynamic modelling approaches for qualitative and quantitative assessments of agricultural systems and decision making; The interactions between agricultural and non-agricultural landscapes; the multiple services of agricultural systems; food security and the environment; Global change and adaptation science; transformational adaptations as driven by changes in climate, policy, values and attitudes influencing the design of farming systems; Development and application of farming systems design tools and methods for impact, scenario and case study analysis; managing the complexities of dynamic agricultural systems; innovation systems and multi stakeholder arrangements that support or promote change and (or) inform policy decisions.