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IF 3.4 2区医学 Q2 GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY

BMC Geriatrics Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI:10.1186/s12877-025-05848-2

Xiaojun Guo, Ying Wu, Yueyue Wang, Houxue Shen, Yingjie Yang, Yun Fan

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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景：随着社会的快速发展，中国正面临着日益严峻的人口老龄化问题。这一趋势对劳动力结构、公共医疗建设和养老服务提出了新的挑战，迫使政府做出一系列政策调整。江苏省作为中国老龄化问题突出的地区，老龄化现象尤为明显。在中国政府积极应对老龄化挑战的背景下，本研究对江苏省老龄化趋势及其影响因素进行了深入分析：方法：本研究基于 2011-2023 年江苏省总人口和老龄人口的统计数据，采用灰色分阶预测模型（FGM(1,1)）对江苏省未来十年的人口老龄化趋势和老龄化系数进行预测。此外，基于面板数据的灰色关联分析（GRA）深入研究了江苏省人口老龄化的相关影响因素。分析发现，一般公共预算支出、卫生技术人员、城镇化率和教育水平等关键因素与人口老龄化高度相关：趋势预测结果表明，预计未来十年江苏省老年人口将继续增加，老龄化程度将更加明显。此外，基于面板数据的 GRA 显示，一般公共预算支出和卫生技术人员数量等因素对老龄化进程有显著影响。这表明，公共财政投入、卫生技术人员的数量和质量对老龄化趋势的形成起着至关重要的作用：结合 FGM（1，1）模型和面板数据 GRA 的分析结果，本研究加深了对江苏省老龄化问题的全面认识。研究结果为江苏省和中国政府制定应对人口老龄化的政策提供了重要的数据支持和科学依据。考虑到未来老龄化的发展趋势，建议政府修订生育政策，优化人口结构，加大公共财政和医疗保障投入，推进养老服务体系建设。这些措施旨在缓解老龄化带来的挑战，实现经济和社会的可持续发展。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Prediction of population aging trend and analysis of influencing factors based on grey fractional-order and grey relational models: a case study of Jiangsu Province, China.

Background: With the rapid development of society, China is facing an increasingly serious problem of population aging. This trend poses new challenges to the labor force structure, public medical care construction and elderly care services, forcing the government to make a series of policy adjustments. Jiangsu Province, as a region with prominent aging problems in China, has a particularly significant aging phenomenon. Against the backdrop of the Chinese government's active response to the challenges of aging, this study conducts an in-depth analysis of the aging trend and its influencing factors in Jiangsu Province.

Methods: Based on the statistical data of the total population and the aging population in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2023, this study employs the grey fractional-order prediction model (FGM(1,1)) to forecast the trend of the aging population and the aging coefficient in Jiangsu Province over the next decade. Additionally, grey relational analysis (GRA) based on panel data was conducted to thoroughly examine the relevant influencing factors of population aging in Jiangsu Province. The analysis identified key factors such as general public budget expenditure, health technicians, urbanization rate, and education level as being highly correlated with population aging.

Results: The results of trend prediction indicate that the elderly population in Jiangsu Province is projected to continue increasing over the next decade, with the degree of aging becoming more pronounced. Additionally, GRA based on panel data reveals that factors such as general public budget expenditures and the number of health technicians significantly influence the aging process. This suggests that public financial investment and the quantity and quality of health technicians play crucial roles in shaping the aging trend.

Conclusions: In conjunction with the analysis results from FGM(1,1) model and GRA of panel data, this study enhances the comprehensive understanding of the aging issue in Jiangsu Province. The insights derived herein offer crucial data support and a scientific foundation for both Jiangsu Province and the Chinese government to develop policies addressing population aging. Considering the anticipated future trends in aging, it is recommended that the government revise fertility policies to optimize population structure, increase investment in public finance and medical security, and promote the development of elderly care systems. These measures aim to mitigate the challenges posed by aging and achieve sustainable economic and social development.

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来源期刊

BMC Geriatrics GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY-

CiteScore

5.70

自引率

7.30%

发文量

873

审稿时长

20 weeks

期刊介绍： BMC Geriatrics is an open access journal publishing original peer-reviewed research articles in all aspects of the health and healthcare of older people, including the effects of healthcare systems and policies. The journal also welcomes research focused on the aging process, including cellular, genetic, and physiological processes and cognitive modifications.