超大型房地产公司债券违约与政府债务风险

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI:10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104158

Junyi Jia , Jingwei Chen , Yao Yang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文研究了中国房地产行业对地方政府债务的风险溢出。以中国房地产巨头恒大债券违约为冲击，结合城市投资债券发行数据，我们发现超大型房地产公司违约显著提高了城市投资债券的风险溢价，而城市投资债券的风险溢价通常代表着地方政府隐性债务的相关风险。风险外溢在欠发达地区、信用评级较低的地方政府融资平台（lgfv）以及担保措施不足的债务工具中更为明显。进一步分析发现，外溢效应与土地资产价值有关，并由“地方政府土地财政”和“地方政府融资平台债务负担”两种机制触发。本研究丰富了我们对房地产行业与地方政府债务风险关联性的认识。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Bond default of super-large real estate company and government debt risk

This paper investigates risk spillover from the real estate sector to local government debt in China. Using Chinese real estate giant Evergrande's bond default as a shock and data on the issuances of urban investment bonds (UIBs), we find that super-large real estate company' default significantly increases the risk premium of UIBs, which typically represents the risk associated with local governments' implicit debts. The risk spillover is more pronounced in less developed regions, for local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) with lower credit ratings, and for debt instruments with inadequate guarantee measures. Further analysis reveals that the spillover effect is related to land asset values and triggered by two mechanisms: “land finance by local governments” and “the debt burden of LGFVs”. This study enriches our understanding of the risk interconnectedness between the real estate sector and local government debt.

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来源期刊

International Review of Financial Analysis BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

10.30

自引率

9.80%

发文量

366

期刊介绍： The International Review of Financial Analysis (IRFA) is an impartial refereed journal designed to serve as a platform for high-quality financial research. It welcomes a diverse range of financial research topics and maintains an unbiased selection process. While not limited to U.S.-centric subjects, IRFA, as its title suggests, is open to valuable research contributions from around the world.