中欧和东欧的前列腺癌:基于全球疾病负担研究(1990-2021年)的负担、趋势和未来预测的综合区域分析

IF 2.9 3区 医学 Q2 ONCOLOGY
Prakasini Satapathy, Shilpa Gaidhane, Gaurav Sanghvi, Subbulakshmi Ganesan, Swati Mishra, Krishnakumar Samikan, Ashutosh Jena, Mahendra Singh, Sanjit Sah, Shubham Kumar, Khang Wen Goh, Muhammed Shabil
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的:本研究旨在通过分析历史趋势、评估当前负担和预测未来趋势来评估中欧和东欧(CEE)地区前列腺癌(PCa)的负担。方法:本研究使用1990-2021年全球疾病负担(GBD)研究的数据来分析中东欧地区PCa的趋势。我们通过接合点回归分析评估PCa的年龄标准化率(ASRs)以确定趋势变化,使用QGIS软件探索区域差异,并使用ARIMA模型对2031年进行预测。结果:与中欧相比,东欧的健康指标发生了更大的变化,发病率、患病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年的平均年百分比变化率更高。2021年,立陶宛和爱沙尼亚的PCa患病率最高,而爱沙尼亚的总百分比变化最高(240.3)。爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚的死亡率也最高(分别为每10万人34.1人和33.6人)。预计中东欧国家的流行率将保持稳定。结论:研究结果突出了中东欧地区前列腺癌负担的显著地区差异。解决这些差异的努力应侧重于加强诊断规划和治疗可及性,特别是在东欧,以减轻该地区PCa的持续负担。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Prostate cancer in central and Eastern Europe: a comprehensive regional analysis of burden, trends, and future projections based on the global burden of disease study (1990-2021).

Objectives: This study aims to assess the burden of prostate cancer (PCa) in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by analyzing historical trends, evaluating the current burden, and forecasting future trends.

Methods: This study uses data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study spanning 1990-2021 to analyze PCa trends in CEE. We assessed age-standardized rates (ASRs) of PCa to identify trend changes through joinpoint regression analysis, explored regional disparities using QGIS software, and made projections for 2031 using the ARIMA model.

Results: Eastern Europe experienced greater changes across health metrics compared to Central Europe, with higher average annual percentage change values for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates. In 2021, Lithuania and Estonia recorded the highest PCa prevalence rates, while Estonia had the highest total percentage change (240.3). Estonia and Latvia also had the highest mortality rates (34.1 and 33.6 per 100,000, respectively). CEE's prevalence rates are projected to remain stable.

Conclusion: The findings highlight significant regional disparities in the burden of prostate cancer in CEE. Efforts to address these disparities should focus on enhancing diagnostic programs and treatment access, particularly in Eastern Europe, to reduce the ongoing burden of PCa in the region.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
3.00%
发文量
100
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Expert Review of Anticancer Therapy (ISSN 1473-7140) provides expert appraisal and commentary on the major trends in cancer care and highlights the performance of new therapeutic and diagnostic approaches. Coverage includes tumor management, novel medicines, anticancer agents and chemotherapy, biological therapy, cancer vaccines, therapeutic indications, biomarkers and diagnostics, and treatment guidelines. All articles are subject to rigorous peer-review, and the journal makes an essential contribution to decision-making in cancer care. Comprehensive coverage in each review is complemented by the unique Expert Review format and includes the following sections: Expert Opinion - a personal view of the data presented in the article, a discussion on the developments that are likely to be important in the future, and the avenues of research likely to become exciting as further studies yield more detailed results Article Highlights – an executive summary of the author’s most critical points.
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