Spatio-temporal patterns of carnivore guild related to their prey in a Mediterranean landscape

Small mammal populations fluctuate significantly in abundance over time, affecting the entire food web. However, changes in their occupancy across a landscape receive less attention. While habitat features are relevant for some predators, diet specialization and prey distribution and abundance might play an important role in shaping predator populations. Using a multi-season occupancy analysis, we examined the spatio-temporal patterns of Mediterranean mesocarnivores—common genet, stone marten and red fox—focusing on the factors that influence their occupancy dynamics, particularly small mammal occupancy as a prey resource. Data was collected from December 2020 to May 2021 in the Sant Llorenç del Munt i l'Obac Natural Park using a camera-trap grid. We analysed small mammal occupancy dynamics and used these as covariates in predator occupancy models to explore predator–prey relationships. Additionally, we included the occurrence of each carnivore as a predictor for interspecific analysis, and kernel density functions were used to assess daily activity overlaps. Results showed that interspecific competition significantly affected mesocarnivore occupancy, as genet occupancy was negatively correlated with the red fox occupancy. Although prey occurrence did not influence mesocarnivore occupancy, it did affect detectability, with genet and stone marten detectability being positively related to small mammal presence and high daily activity overlap between predators and prey. This suggests that mesopredators respond rapidly to prey abundance, highlighting the intricate temporal dependence between predator activity and prey occupancy. Dynamic occupancy and activity models provide a deeper understanding of predator–prey relationships at the local scale.