地缘经济碎片化:全球北方能源转型面临的风险是什么?来自面板分位数型估计方法的经验证据

Godwin Olasehinde-Williams , Cihat Köksal
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文探讨了地缘经济碎片化对全球北方地区能源转型的影响,该地区历史上负有高温室气体排放的责任,但在应对气候变化方面至关重要。最近经济一体化的政策转变引发了人们对气候政策讨论中地缘经济碎片化风险的担忧。该研究使用面板分位数方法,分析了贸易限制和其他因素如何影响1990年至2020年全球23个北方国家的可再生能源消费。结果表明:在中低可再生能源消费水平上,地缘经济碎片化对能源转型具有正向影响;然而,在更高的层次上,其影响变为消极的,强调经济一体化和减少贸易壁垒的重要性。这些发现表明,应根据具体国情制定政策,以平衡地缘经济变化与可持续能源目标。最后,本研究强调了经济碎片化与能源转型之间的复杂关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Geoeconomic fragmentation: What is at stake for energy transition in the Global North? Empirical evidence from panel-quantile-type estimation methods
This paper explores the impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on the energy transition in the Global North, a region historically responsible for high greenhouse gas emissions yet crucial in addressing climate change. Recent policy shifts away from economic integration have raised concerns about the risks of geoeconomic fragmentation in climate policy discussions. Using panel quantile methods, the study analyzes how trade restrictions and other factors influence renewable energy consumption across 23 Global North countries from 1990 to 2020. The results show a dual effect: at lower to middle levels of renewable energy consumption, geoeconomic fragmentation positively influences energy transition. However, at higher levels, its impact turns negative, emphasizing the importance of economic integration and reduced trade barriers. These findings suggest that policies should be tailored to specific national conditions to balance geoeconomic shifts with sustainable energy goals. Ultimately, this research highlights the complex relationship between economic fragmentation and energy transition.
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