- Book学术

发布求助

文献互助智能选刊最新文献

IF 7.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI:10.1029/2024EF005390

Changyan Yin, Chenyun Bai, Yuanjun Zhu, Ming'an Shao, Xiaoyang Han, Jiangbo Qiao

{"title":"Future Soil Erosion Risk in China: Differences in Erosion Driven by General and Extreme Precipitation Under Climate Change","authors":"Changyan Yin, Chenyun Bai, Yuanjun Zhu, Ming'an Shao, Xiaoyang Han, Jiangbo Qiao","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005390","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Soil erosion status is a comprehensive indicator reflecting the quality and stability of ecosystems. Soil erosion changes in China are becoming more unclear due to climate change and intensified human activity. Within the framework of climate change, this study treats the rainfall erosion factor as a dynamic factor and examines three types of contrasting precipitation—general, heavy, and extreme—through integrates the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation and Geographic Information Systems to reveal differences in water erosion driven by varying intensities of precipitation. The results reveal that over 63% of China's land area has experienced soil erosion during the historical period (1980–2022), with slight erosion being the most common. Severe water erosion is predominantly found in the Southwest Basin, the Yangtze River Basin, and the Yellow River basin. The multi-year average soil erosion rate in China is estimated at 2.46 t·ha−1 yr−1, with R95P and R99P contributing 26.50% and 7.71%, respectively. Future projections (2023–2100) indicate that soil erosion driven by PRCPTOT, R95P, and R99P could increase by 22%–91% under SSP5-RCP8.5 and SSP2-RCP4.5 scenarios. Overall, climate change has a limited effect on the spatial pattern of soil erosion in China, mainly influencing the intensity and extent of water erosion and adversely impacting most regions. Extreme precipitation is more sensitive to climate change, making future erosion risks associated with it a critical concern. These findings can guide decision-makers and resource managers in regional planning to enhance resilience to climate change and secure water and food resources.","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005390","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earths Future","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EF005390","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

水土流失状况是反映生态系统质量和稳定性的综合指标。由于气候变化和人类活动的加剧，中国的水土流失变化越来越不明显。在气候变化的框架下，本研究将降水侵蚀因子作为一个动态因子，通过整合修订的通用土壤流失方程和地理信息系统，研究了一般降水、强降水和极端降水三种类型的降水对比，揭示了不同强度降水导致的水土流失差异。研究结果表明，在 1980-2022 年这一历史时期，中国超过 63% 的国土面积遭受过水土流失，其中以轻度水土流失最为普遍。严重水土流失主要发生在西南盆地、长江流域和黄河流域。据估计，中国多年平均水土流失率为 2.46 吨-公顷-年-1，其中 R95P 和 R99P 分别占 26.50% 和 7.71%。未来预测（2023-2100 年）表明，在 SSP5-RCP8.5 和 SSP2-RCP4.5 情景下，PRCPTOT、R95P 和 R99P 造成的土壤侵蚀将增加 22%-91% 。总体而言，气候变化对中国水土流失空间格局的影响有限，主要影响水土流失的强度和范围，对大部分地区产生不利影响。极端降水对气候变化更为敏感，因此与之相关的未来水土流失风险成为人们关注的焦点。这些研究结果可指导决策者和资源管理人员进行区域规划，以提高对气候变化的适应能力，确保水和粮食资源的安全。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Future Soil Erosion Risk in China: Differences in Erosion Driven by General and Extreme Precipitation Under Climate Change

查看原文本刊更多论文

Future Soil Erosion Risk in China: Differences in Erosion Driven by General and Extreme Precipitation Under Climate Change

Soil erosion status is a comprehensive indicator reflecting the quality and stability of ecosystems. Soil erosion changes in China are becoming more unclear due to climate change and intensified human activity. Within the framework of climate change, this study treats the rainfall erosion factor as a dynamic factor and examines three types of contrasting precipitation—general, heavy, and extreme—through integrates the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation and Geographic Information Systems to reveal differences in water erosion driven by varying intensities of precipitation. The results reveal that over 63% of China's land area has experienced soil erosion during the historical period (1980–2022), with slight erosion being the most common. Severe water erosion is predominantly found in the Southwest Basin, the Yangtze River Basin, and the Yellow River basin. The multi-year average soil erosion rate in China is estimated at 2.46 t·ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, with R95P and R99P contributing 26.50% and 7.71%, respectively. Future projections (2023–2100) indicate that soil erosion driven by PRCPTOT, R95P, and R99P could increase by 22%–91% under SSP5-RCP8.5 and SSP2-RCP4.5 scenarios. Overall, climate change has a limited effect on the spatial pattern of soil erosion in China, mainly influencing the intensity and extent of water erosion and adversely impacting most regions. Extreme precipitation is more sensitive to climate change, making future erosion risks associated with it a critical concern. These findings can guide decision-makers and resource managers in regional planning to enhance resilience to climate change and secure water and food resources.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

CiteScore

11.00

自引率

7.30%

发文量

260

审稿时长

16 weeks

期刊介绍： Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.