Calibration of the Extremum System: Preliminary Results for the February 6, 2023, Destructive Turkey Earthquake: Impact and Assessment

The article reports the use of intensity attenuation equations for the territory of Turkey by modeling the impact of the most powerful destructive earthquake of February 6, 2023, in southeastern Turkey. The relevance of the study follows from the needed reliable estimates of possible loss due to earthquakes in order to aid the decision making process for the response and proper choice of a search and rescue strategy for heavily affected populated areas. The aim of the study is to calibrate the Extremum system models for southeastern Turkey. Our study is the first to analyze the seismic intensity attenuation equations obtained by researchers at different times with a view to their applicability to near real time loss assessment for powerful events occurring in the study area. We investigate how the results of seismic attenuation modeling are affected by macroseismic field orientation, the ellipse compression factor k, and the source parameters of a powerful event as determined by different seismological agencies in the alert mode. Computer simulation was applied to assess possible impact due to the February 6, 2023, earthquake using the Extremum system developed with our participation. The article provides preliminary results of modeling the impact of the Turkey earthquake, as well as an assessment of the convergence achieved by the calculated and observed intensities for various input data options.