Seismic Risk Assessment in the Territory of Krasnodar krai

The aim of the study is to update the information content of the Automated Information Management System of the Russian Unified Emergency Prevention and Response in order to increase the reliability of seismic risk assessment results and ensure the safety of the population in earthquake-prone areas of the Russian Federation. The study area is Krasnodar krai, where according to review and detailed seismic zoning, possible source zones with М_max = 5.0, М_max = 5.5, М_max = 6, and М_max = 7 were identified. The relevance of this study follows from activation of seismicity in recent years in the considered area according to the detection by the network of the Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences, of seismic events in a wide magnitude range with М ≥ 1, as well as a series of perceived earthquakes in May 2023 in the Tuapse region. The scientific novelty is that for the first time in the study of a single region, the results of all stages of the study are presented. Seismic hazard and seismic regime assessments are refined by analyzing moderate events with magnitudes of M = 3.3–4.5 from the beginning of the last century to the present, and the seismic risk indicators are computed at regional and urban levels. For the first time, we have performed a joint analysis of all obtained variables. Computer simulation was used to assess the risk parameters along with the Extremum GIS, developed with the participation of the authors. Maps of seismic risk social and economic indicators were compiled for the territory of Krasnodar krai, as well as for the city of Krasnodar, taking into account the updated data on the city building inventory.