Rainfall variability, land use and land cover dynamics, and implications for climate risk through a theoretical-conceptual model for the Eastern Northeast of Brazil

The study assessed the variability of rainfall, land use and land cover (LULC), the influence of meteorological systems and their interactions, followed by the increase in climate risks in Maceió – Alagoas – ENEB. Monthly rainfall data were obtained from the 64-year historical series (1958–2022) of the TerraClimate platform. The TerraClimate precipitation data were validated ANA and SEMARH data, resulting in R² = 0.72 and r = 0.85. Spatially, the highest rainfall accumulations occurred from April to July (rainy season), with May and June being the wettest months (>800 mm). In contrast, the months from October to February (dry season) and March, August, and September (transition season) recorded lower rainfall, with November and December being the driest months (150–201 mm). The seasonal occurrence of rainfall and the relief in Maceió were associated with areas of climate risk. Maceió is a region vulnerable to extreme rainfall events due to its geographical location, the influence of the Atlantic Ocean and the Mundaú/Manguaba Lagoons, and the interaction with multi-scale meteorological systems. With LULC, there was an expansion of forest areas in rural areas and a reduction of agricultural areas, followed by increased urbanization in neighborhoods in the western part of the city (coastal plateau). The theoretical-conceptual model of climate risk provides essential information for planning and supports decision-making for public policies. The ability to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall underscores the importance of adaptive responses by local communities through the management of public policies and strategies for adapting to climate risk.