建立适应水分的种植制度,应对华北含水层枯竭

Meng Yuan , Dongbao Sun , Daozhi Gong , Enke Liu , Qingsuo Wang
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摘要

随着人口的迅速增长,地下水的开采促进了世界粮食安全的加强,但防止过度开采是一项重大挑战。华北地区地下水年平均透支量近9.0 km3,是世界上最大的地下水凹陷锥之一。为了实现含水层开采和补给之间的平衡,在引水的同时,农业用水必须每年减少4.746立方千米。为了探索华北地区在减少地下水开采的情况下,在不危及中国粮食安全、经济可行、社会认可的情况下,农业发展的可持续性,我们基于多源数据,包括可实施节水方案的地区,选择了10种节水种植方案和2种场景(蔬菜和果树是否以滴灌取代地灌)。从作物节水大田试验中获取灌溉定额、耗水量、产量、政府节水补贴、当地作物生产成本和价格等大数据,通过实际调查,期望获得与水分有效度相匹配的可持续适水种植制度优化方案。提出了解决华北地区地下水过度开采的可行的水适应种植方案,即应保持冬小麦-夏玉米两熟制,而不是一年一熟制或造林;蔬菜和果树的所有田地都应采用滴灌(一种节水灌溉方法);应在井灌地区对冬小麦实行有限灌溉(节水灌溉制度)(例如,一次灌溉覆盖50%的面积,或两次灌溉超过100%,而不是三次灌溉);适当增加棉花(节水作物)种植,替代冬小麦。这些调整将使农民净收入的增加不减少,中国政府支付的节水补贴总额不超过10 × 109元人民币,而全国小麦和/或玉米产量的年损失不超过5%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Establishing water-adaptive cropping systems to combat aquifer depletion in North China

Establishing water-adaptive cropping systems to combat aquifer depletion in North China
Groundwater exploitation has facilitated the strengthening of world food security as populations have rapidly grown, but preventing overexploitation is a major challenge. North China has one of the world's largest groundwater depression cones due to its average annual groundwater overdraft of nearly 9.0 ​km3. To achieve a balance between extraction and recharge of aquifers, groundwater use by agriculture must be reduced by 4.746 ​km3 annually, alongside water diversion. In order to explore the sustainability of agricultural development in the context of reduced groundwater extraction in North China, which does not jeopardize Chinese food security, is economically feasible, and socially recognized, we selected 10 water-saving planting schemes and 2 scenarios (whether or not to replace surface irrigation with drip irrigation for vegetables and fruit trees) based on multi-source data including the area where water-saving alternatives can be implemented, big data from crop water-saving field trials such as the irrigation quotas, water consumption, and yield, water-saving subsidies from the government, and local costs and prices of crop production from an actual survey, and expected to obtain the optimization schemes of sustainable water-adaptive cropping systems matching with water availability. We obtained the feasible water-adaptive cropping solutions to address the groundwater overexploitation in North China, i.e. the annual winter wheat–summer maize double cropping system should be maintained rather than the annual single cropping system or afforestation; drip irrigation (a water-saving irrigation method) should be applied to all fields of vegetables and fruit trees; limited irrigation (a water-saving irrigation regime) of winter wheat in well-irrigation regions should be implemented (for example, one irrigation event across 50 ​% of the area or two events over 100 ​% rather than three irrigation events); and cotton planting (a water-saving cropping system) should be appropriately increased by replacing winter wheat. These adaptations will keep the increase in net income of farmers without decreasing and the total water-saving subsidies payable by the Chinese government to below 10 ​× ​109 Chinese Yuan while resulting in an annual loss of the national wheat and/or maize production of less than 5 ​%.
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