单纯复合体上考虑非线性发病率、出生和死亡的SIR流行病模型的建模与分析

IF 2.8 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Lixin Yang, Jia Li, Mengjiao Li, Yiqing Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了捕捉群落内流行病的传播过程,本文提出了一个包含非线性发病率以及2阶简单复合体上的出生率和死亡率的SIR流行病模型。首先,分析了平衡点的存在性和稳定性。同时,导出了基本复制数、与双稳定区相关的两个疫情爆发阈值以及高阶增强因子的临界值。理论结果表明,该系统产生双稳态。此外,当高阶增强因子超过临界值且传染系数超过两个流行阈值时,系统呈现不连续过渡。灵敏度分析表明,恢复速率和成对传输速率对传播阈值有显著影响。仿真结果表明,随着出生率和高阶增强因子的增加,随着自然死亡率和疾病死亡率的降低,系统由前向分岔过渡到后向分岔。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling and analysis of SIR epidemic model concerning nonlinear incidence rate, births and deaths on simplicial complexes
To capture the intracommunity epidemic transmission process, this paper presents a SIR epidemic model incorporating nonlinear incidence rates alongside birth and death rates on the 2-order simplicial complexes. Firstly, the existence and stability of equilibrium points are analyzed. Meanwhile, we derive the basic reproduction number, two epidemic outbreak thresholds related to the bistability region, and the critical value for higher-order enhancement factor. Theoretical findings indicate that the system produces the bistable state. In addition, when the higher-order enhancement factor exceeds the critical value and the contagion coefficient exceeds two epidemic thresholds, the system exhibits discontinuous transitions. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis reveals that recovery rate and the pairwise transmission rate have a significant impact on the propagation threshold. Simulation results demonstrate that as the birth rate and higher-order enhancement factors increase, and as the natural and disease mortality rates decrease, the system transitions from a forward bifurcation to a backward bifurcation.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
9.10%
发文量
852
审稿时长
6.6 months
期刊介绍: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications Recognized by the European Physical Society Physica A publishes research in the field of statistical mechanics and its applications. Statistical mechanics sets out to explain the behaviour of macroscopic systems by studying the statistical properties of their microscopic constituents. Applications of the techniques of statistical mechanics are widespread, and include: applications to physical systems such as solids, liquids and gases; applications to chemical and biological systems (colloids, interfaces, complex fluids, polymers and biopolymers, cell physics); and other interdisciplinary applications to for instance biological, economical and sociological systems.
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