将个人选举表现与选举机构的组成联系起来：一种反事实的方法

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102925

Oliver Huwyler

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究报告提出了一种基于反事实的方法来评估候选人的个人得票属性和名单属性对开放和半开放名单比例代表制下当选机构组成的影响。以前的研究主要集中在个人选举表现上，忽视了描述性代表性的更广泛含义。通过识别非事实被选者，并将其人数与事实被选者的人数并列，拟议的方法提供了具体因素如何改变当选机构组成的直观指标。应用于2023年瑞士卢塞恩地区议会选举，结果表明，在选举表现的回归分析中确定的效应大小并不总是对应于各自变量随后对当选机构组成的影响程度。因此，基于反事实的方法为候选人和名单特征的选举结果及其在塑造描述性表征中的作用提供了有价值的见解。

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Linking individual electoral performance to the composition of elected bodies: A counterfactual-based approach

This research note presents a counterfactual-based approach to assessing the impact of candidates’ personal vote-earning attributes and list properties on the composition of bodies elected under open and semi-open list proportional representation systems. Previous research has focused heavily on individual electoral performance, overlooking the broader implications for descriptive representation. By identifying counterfactual electees and juxtaposing their numbers with those of factual electees, the proposed approach provides intuitive metrics of how specific factors alter the composition of elected bodies. Applied to the 2023 regional parliament election of Lucerne, Switzerland, the results suggest that the effect sizes identified in regression analyses of electoral performance do not always correspond to how strongly the respective variables subsequently influence the composition of elected bodies. The counterfactual-based approach thus provides valuable insights into the electoral consequences of candidate and list characteristics, and their role in shaping descriptive representation.

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来源期刊

Electoral Studies POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

13.00%

发文量

审稿时长

67 days

期刊介绍： Electoral Studies is an international journal covering all aspects of voting, the central act in the democratic process. Political scientists, economists, sociologists, game theorists, geographers, contemporary historians and lawyers have common, and overlapping, interests in what causes voters to act as they do, and the consequences. Electoral Studies provides a forum for these diverse approaches. It publishes fully refereed papers, both theoretical and empirical, on such topics as relationships between votes and seats, and between election outcomes and politicians reactions; historical, sociological, or geographical correlates of voting behaviour; rational choice analysis of political acts, and critiques of such analyses.