Lubrication or ignition? The role of asymmetric oil trade in Russia's international conflicts

Energy trade, especially oil, significantly impacts global economic and political stability. This paper introduces the concept of asymmetric interdependence from International Political Economics into energy economics for the first time and develops a measurement index for oil trade asymmetric interdependence. Using bilateral panel data focusing on Russia and its trade partners, we find that symmetric oil trade significantly reduces the likelihood of interstate conflicts. At the same time, lower-income countries and non-neighboring countries show more significant performance. In addition, the oil trade asymmetric interdependence does not affect the likelihood of conflict in the same way that it does in other markets, such as coal and liquefied petroleum gases. In the analysis of Panel VAR, we find that oil trade asymmetric interdependence is the granger cause of conflicts. In conclusion, we believe that, rather than using energy trade as a weapon for sanctions and international struggle, opting for more symmetrical trade is more likely to contribute to the realization of peace. We therefore call for more equitable trade relations among the nations of the world.