Paloma Trascasa-Castro, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Amanda C. Maycock
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Future climate response to observed strong El Niño analogues
The effect of future climate change on the boreal winter response to strong El Niño is investigated using pacemaker simulations with the EC-Earth3-CC model constrained towards observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5, the surface temperature response to strong El Niño intensifies in North America, northern Africa, Australia and the North Atlantic compared to present day. However, future strong El Niño has a weaker climate impact in southern America and Africa. Temperature extremes under strong El Niño intensify in the future in some regions, with more cool days in eastern North America, while warm days in northern South America decrease. Assuming that the characteristics of strong El Niño events will not change in the future, we distinguish between changes in El Niño teleconnections and background climate changes, and found that the latter dominates the absolute climate response to strong El Niño events.
期刊介绍：
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols.
The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.
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