[Burden of congenital birth defects in children under five in China from 1990 to 2021 and prediction of future trend].

Objectives: To study the incidence and disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under five in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the incidence of congenital birth defects in this population from 2022 to 2036, providing a reference for the prevention of congenital birth defects in children.

Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were employed to describe the disease burden. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends in incidence and DALY rates of congenital birth defects in children under five. A grey prediction model GM(1,1) was applied to fit the trend of incidence rates of congenital birth defects in this age group and to predict the incidence from 2022 to 2036.

Results: In 2021, the incidence rate of congenital birth defects among children under five in China was 737.28 per 100 000. Among these, congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities had the highest incidence rate at 307.15 per 100 000, followed by congenital heart defects (223.53 per 100 000), congenital urinary and genital tract malformations (74.99 per 100 000), and congenital gastrointestinal malformations (62.61 per 100 000). From 1990 to 2021, the incidence rate and DALY rate of congenital birth defects in children under five in China decreased at an average annual rate of 1.73% and 5.42%, respectively. The prediction analysis indicated a decreasing trend in the incidence of congenital birth defects among children under five in China from 2022 to 2036, with the incidence rate dropping from 892.36 per 100 000 in 2022 to 783.35 per 100 000 in 2036.

Conclusions: The incidence and disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under five in China showed a significant declining trend from 1990 to 2021. It is predicted that this incidence will continue to decrease until 2036.